Daily Global Macro Technical Trend Bias/Key Levels (Mon 04 Jun)
Kelvin Wong June 3, 2018 11:26 PM
FX – USD strength setback except against JPY
- EUR/USD – Trend bias: Short-term recovery scenario remains intact. Traded sideways on last Fri, 01 Jun holding above the key adjusted short-term support at 1.1600/1590 as it printed a low of 1.1617 after the release of better than expected U.S. NFP data for May (223K versus a consensus of 188K). Short-term technical elements remain unchanged with positive momentum reading seen in the 4 hour Stochastic oscillator as it inches upwards and has not reached an extreme overbought level. Maintain bullish bias in any dips with 1.1600/1590 remains at the key short-term support for a further potential push up with next intermediate resistances at 1.1760 (former minor swing low areas of 21 Nov/12 Dec 2017) follow by 1.1880/1940 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 16 Feb 2018 high to 29 May 2018 low + former minor swing low area of 09/10 Jan 2018 that was rejected on 14 May 2018). On the other hand, failure to hold at 1.1590 negates the recovery process for a slide to retest last week’s low of 1.1510 and a below it exposes the lower limit of the key major support zone at 1.1430 (the former resistance of a basing configuration that occurred in May 2015/Jun 2016 + 50% Fibonacci of the multi-year up move from Jan 2017 low to 16 Feb 2018 high of 1.2555).
- GBP/USD – Trend bias: Short-term mean reversion rebound in progress. The pair cleared above the 1.3350 upper limit of the short-term neutrality zone that validated a potential short-term rebound scenario. In addition, price action has formed a weekly bullish “Hammer” candlestick pattern coupled with the daily RSI oscillator that has just exited from its oversold region. These observations suggest a revival of a short to medium-term upside momentum of price action. Turn bullish in any dips with key short-term support at 1.3295 (former minor swing low areas of 23/28 May 2018 + minor ascending trendline from 29 May 2018 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going up move from 29 May 2018 low to today, 04 Jun Asian session current intraday high of 1.3370) for a further potential push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 1.3480 (former minor range congestion support from 04/18 May 2018 + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going down move from 17 Apr 2018 high to 29 May low of 1.3205) in the first step. However, a break below 1.3295 invalidates the short-term rebound scenario for a continuation of the medium-term down move to target the next support at 1.3200/3160 (29 May 2018 swing low area + 50% Fibonacci retracement of the multi-year up move from Oct 2016 low to 17 Apr 2018 high of 1.4377).
- AUD/USD – Trend bias: Short-term mean reversion rebound scenario remains intact. The pair had pull-backed and staged a rebound right at the predefined 0.7520/7500 key short-term support as expected (refer to previous report. It printed a low of 0.7514 on last Fri, 01 Jun after the release of the U.S. NFP data for May. Maintain bullish bias with adjusted key short-term support now at 0.7550 (the minor congestion area of 31 May/01 Jun 2018 + minor ascending trendline from 30 May 2018 low) for a potential residual push to target the 0.7625/7655 resistance zone (pull-back resistance of the former major “Ascending Wedge” support from Jan 2016 low + 50%/61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the down move from 19 Apr high to 09 May 2018 low) before risk of another leg of bearish impulsive downleg resumes. Failure to hold at 0.7550 negates the short-term rebound scenario for a slide to retest the 0.7520/0.7500 support.
- NZD/USD - Trend bias: Short-term mean reversion rebound remains in progress. The pair had managed to hold right above the 0.6970/6950 predefined key short-term support (refer to previous report) before it staged a bounce after a print of an intraday low of 0.6960 seen in last Fri, 01 Jun U.S. session. Short-term momentum remains positive with the 4 hour Stochastic oscillator that has continued to inch upwards and has not reached an extreme overbought level. No change, maintain bullish bias with 0.6970/6950 remains as the key short-term support for a further potential push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 0.7050/7060 (former minor swing high area of 04 May 2018 + Fibonacci projection/retracement cluster). On the other hand, failure to hold at 0.6970/6950 negates the bullish tone to see a deeper slide to retest the 30 May swing low area of 0.6890/6883.
- USD/JPY - Trend bias: Short-term mean reversion rebound remains in progress. Push up as expected and almost hit the short-term resistance/target of 109.80 (printed a high of 109.73 in last Fri, 01 Jun U.S. session). No change, maintain bullish bias in any dips with adjusted key short-term support now at 109.06 (former minor swing high area of 30 May 2018 + minor ascending trendline from 30 May 2018 low) for a another round of potential push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 110.10/30 (minor swing high of 24 May 2018 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 21 May high to 29 May 2018 low). On the other hand, failure to hold at 109.06 negates the bullish tone for a deeper slide to retest 108.40 and even 108.10 (29 May 2018 swing low area).
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