Daily Global Macro Technical Trend Bias/Key Levels (Tues 12 Jun)
Kelvin Wong June 10, 2018 10:42 PM
FX – Signs in favour of USD strength has resurfaced
- EUR/USD – Trend bias: Sideways, residual push up scenario now at risk. The earlier push up seen in yesterday, 11 Jun European session had failed to break above the recent minor swing high of 1.1840 printed on 07 Jun 2018 and slid down later in the U.S. session to retest the 1.1737/1725 predefined key short-term support (refer to yesterday report). In addition, it ended the U.S. session with a bearish daily “Shooting Star” candlestick pattern which suggests a potential bearish reversal in sentiment. Given the revival of USD strength seen in other major pairs, the conviction for the residual push up scenario has been reduced. Thus, prefer to turn neutral now between 1.1725 and 1.1840. On a clearance above 1.1840 (an hourly close above it) reinstates the short-term bullish tone for a potential push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 1.1880/1940 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 16 Feb 2018 high to 29 May 2018 low + former minor swing low area of 09/10 Jan 2018 that was rejected on 14 May 2018 + also now the potential breakout target of the aforementioned minor “Ascending Triangle”). On the flipside, a break below 1.1725 (an hourly close below it) opens up scope for the continuation of the medium-term downtrend in place since Apr 2018 for a potential push down towards the next intermediate supports at 1.1650/1616 in the first step (the minor swing low areas of 01/05 Jun 2018 + 50%/61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 30 May to today, Asian session current intraday high of 1.18000).
- GBP/USD – Trend bias: Sideways with risk of a deeper pull-back/retracement. Continued to trade sideways after a test on its lower limit of the short-term neutrality zone at 1.3350 (refer to yesterday report) as printed a low of 1.3345 in yesterday, 11 Jun European session but without an hourly close below it. No change, maintain neutrality stance between 1.3480 and 1.3350 (adjusted to take into account of last Fri, 08 Jun intraday low). A break below 1.3350 (an hourly close below it) is likely to trigger the start of a deeper retracement towards the next intermediate supports at 1.3300 (minor swing low areas of 04/05 Jun 2018 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 29 May 2018 low to yesterday, 06 Jun high of 1.3472) follow by 1.3260 (minor swing low area of 01 Jun 2018). On the flipside, a clearance above 1.3480 opens up scope for a further squeeze up towards the next intermediate resistance at 1.3590/3650 (minor range resistance of 08/14 May 2018 + 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the down move from 17 Apr 2018 high to 29 May low of 1.3205).
- AUD/USD – Trend bias: Deeper pull-back/retracement remains in progress. Tested and retreated from the predefined 0.7630/40 key short-term resistance as expected (refer to yesterday report) as it printed a high of 0.7621 in yesterday, 11 Jun U.S. session. No change, maintain bearish bias with 0.7630/40 remains as the key short-term resistance for a further potential push down to target the next intermediate support at 0.7515 (the minor swing low of 01 Jun 2018 & the lower boundary of the minor ascending channel from 09 May 2018 low). A break below 0.7515 shall see the continuation of the medium-term down move in place since 14 Mar 2018 high for a further potential decline to retest the 09 May 2018 swing low area of 0.7450/0.7410.
- NZD/USD - Trend bias: Sideways with a bearish bias. Continued to trade sideways within the short-term neutrality zone but signs of weakness have emerged. The pair ended yesterday, 11 Jun U.S session with a bearish daily “Shooting Star” candlestick pattern that indicates a potential bearish reversal in sentiment. Maintain neutrality stance between 0.7060 (former minor swing high area of 04 May 2018 + Fibonacci projection/retracement cluster) and 0.7000 (05 Jun 2018 minor swing low). A break below 0.7000 opens up scope for a decline towards the next intermediate support of 0.6960 (the former minor swing low area of 01 Jun 2018) and below exposes the next support of 0.6900 (psychological + minor ascending trendline from 15 May 2018/the start of the current short-term rebound). On the flipside, a clearance (an hourly close) above 0.7060 triggers a potential squeeze up to retest a significant medium-term resistance at 0.7190 (the former range support from 08 Feb/20 Mar 2018 before the recent bearish breakdown that led to a decline of 330 pips + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 13 Apr 2018 high to 16 May 2018 low).
- USD/JPY - Trend bias: Up move resumes. The pair had cleared above the 109.65 adjusted key short-term resistance that invalidated the “residual push down scenario” of the minor pull-back from 07 Jun 2018 high of 110.26. Flip back to a bullish bias in any dips with key short-term support now at 109.80 (former minor swing high area of 08 Jun 2018 that had been broken & retested in yesterday, 11 Jun U.S. session + 50% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going up move from 08 Jun 2018 low of 109.17 to today, 12 Jun Asian session current intraday high of 110.49) for a further potential push up within a medium-term uptrend that is in place since 26 Mar 2018 low for a retest on 111.40/60 intermediate resistance in the first step (minor swing high area of 21 May 2018 + median line of the aforementioned medium-term ascending channel + Fibonacci projection cluster). On the other hand, a break below 109.80 shall reinstate the minor corrective decline phase to retest the 108.30/107.80 key medium-term support zone (lower boundary of a medium-term ascending channel from 26 Mar 2018 low + former minor swing high areas of 29/30 May 2018.
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