Daily Global Macro Technical Trend Bias/Key Levels (Thurs 05 Jul)
Kelvin Wong July 4, 2018 11:20 PM
FX – USD strength setback remains in progress while USD/JPY holding above key short-term support
- EUR/USD – Trend bias: Mean reversion rebound scenario remains intact. Yesterday, 04 Jul, the pair traded in a tight range of 51 pips and held above the 1.1620 predefined key short-term support (printed a low of 1.1630 in yesterday European session. No change, maintain bullish bias with 1.1620 as the key short-term support (03 Jul low area + lower boundary of minor ascending channel from 28 Jun 2018 low) for a potential minor rebound to target the 1.1740 intermediate resistance (23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the down move from 27 Mar 2018 high to 21 Jun 2018 low + former minor range support from 08/13 Jun 2018 + upper boundary of minor ascending channel from 28 Jun 2018 low). On the flipside, a break below 1.1620 reinstates the bears for a slide to retest 1.1510 in the first step (the range support that was formed since 29 May 2018).
- GBP/USD - Trend bias: Mean reversion rebound in progress. Inched up higher as expected and printed a new minor “higher high” of 1.3250 in yesterday, 04 Jul U.S. session that surpassed the first intermediate resistance/target of 13230 as per highlighted in our previous report. No clear signs of short-term bullish exhaustion, maintain bullish bias in any dips with an adjusted key short-term support at 1.3170 (yesterday, 04 Jul European session low + lower boundary of the minor ascending channel from 28 Jun 2018 low + 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent push up from 02 Jul 2018 low to yesterday 04 Jul U.S. session high of 1.3250) for a further potential minor upleg to target the next intermediate resistance at 1.3310/3360 (22 Jun 2018 minor swing high + descending trendline from 10 May 2018 + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the multi-month down move since 17 Apr 2018 high to 28 Jun 2018 low). However, failure to hold at 1.3150 sees another slide to retest 1.3100 before the 1.3050 low of 28 Jun 2018.
- AUD/USD - Trend bias: Mean reversion rebound in progress. Pull-backed from its 04 Jul Asian session high of 0.7424 but managed to hold the 0.7350 predefined adjusted key short-term support (printed a current intraday low of 0.7367 in today, 05 Jul Asian session). In addition, its shorter-term hourly Stochastic oscillator has started to form a bullish divergence signal which indicates the pull-back from 04 Jul high has started to lose downside momentum. No change, maintain bullish bias with 0.7350 remains as the key short-term support (minor ascending trendline from 02 Jul 2018 low + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going push up from 02 Jul 2018 low to 04 Jul 2018 high) for a further potential push up to target 0.7450 intermediate resistance (former medium-term swing low area of 09 May 2018 that had managed to stall the previous push up on 25 Jun 2018). An hourly close above 0.7450 is likely to reinforce a further mean reversion rebound towards the 0.7540/0.7600 resistance (upper boundary of the medium-term descending channel from 26 Jan 2018 + 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 14 Mar 2018 high to 29 Jun 2018 low). On the other hand, failure to hold at 0.7350 negates the bullish tone for a slide back to retest 0.7300 (09 May 2017 swing low area + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from Jan 2016 low to 26 Jan 2018 high).
- NZD/USD - Trend bias: Mean reversion rebound remains intact. Traded in a tight range of 34 pips. No change, maintain bullish bias in any dips with the key short-term support remains at 0.6730/20 (former minor swing low of 29 Jun 2018 + 50%/61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going push up from 03 Jul 2018 low to today, 04 Jul 2018 high) for a further potential push up to target the 0.6830/6865 intermediate resistance (the former neckline support of the major “Double Top” + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the down move from 16 Feb 2018 high to 03 Jul 2018 low). However, a break below 0.6720 negates the bullish tone for a slide back to test the 0.6675/50 support (30 May 2016 medium-term swing low + 1.00 Fibonacci projection of the down move from 27 Jul 2017 high to 17 Nov 2017 low projected from 16 Feb 2018 high).
- USD/JPY - Trend bias: Up move still intact. Traded a range of 31 pips and ended yesterday, 04 Jul U.S. session with a bullish daily “Hammer” candlestick right above the 110.25 excess key short-erm support as per highlighted in the previous report. No change maintain bullish bias with 110.25 remains as the key short-term support(50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent up move from25 Jun 2018 low to 03 Jul 2018 high + medium-term ascending channel support from 26 Mar 2018 low) and 110.65 as the upside trigger level. An hourly close above 110.65 is required to reinforce a further push up to retest the 21 May 2018 high of 111.39 before targeting the lower limit of the major resistance at 112.00 (the upper boundary of a major descending resistance in place since Jun 2015 high + Fibonacci projection/retracement cluster). On the flipside, a break below 110.25 sees another round of choppy slide back to retest the 109.35/25 medium-term range support in place since 08 Jun 2018.
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