Top Story

Daily Global Macro Technical Trend Bias/Key Levels (Thurs 07 Jun)

FX –  Recent USD weakness seen in EUR, GBP & AUD at risk of a pause/consolidation

  • EUR/USD – Trend bias: Residual push up before risk of consolidation. Continued its upward movement as expected and met the first intermediate resistance/target of 1.1760 (former minor swing low areas of 21 Nov/12 Dec 2017) where it printed a high of 1.1795 in yesterday, 06 Jun U.S. session. Elliot Wave/fractal analysis suggests the on-going short-term corrective up move from 30 May 2018 low of 1.1518 is coming towards a potential end point where the recent up move may shape a retracement/pull-back. Maintain bullish bias with a tightened key short-term support now at 1.1737 (the pull-back support of the minor “Ascending Triangle range resistance from 31 May 2018 high) for a potential residual push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 1.1880/1940 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 16 Feb 2018 high to 29 May 2018 low + former minor swing low area of 09/10 Jan 2018 that was rejected on 14 May 2018 + also now the potential breakout target of the aforementioned minor “Ascending Triangle”). However, failure to hold at 1.1737 is likely to see the start of a retracement/pull-back towards the next support at 1.1650/1616 (the minor swing low areas of 01/05 Jun 2018 + 50%/61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 30 May to today, Asian session current intraday high of 1.18000).
  • GBP/USD – Trend bias: Residual push up remains in progress. No change, maintain bullish bias in any dips with a tightened adjusted key short-term support now at 1.3360 (close to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going up move from 29 May 2018 low to yesterday, 06 Jun high of 1.3443 + lower boundary of a minor ascending range configuration in place since 29 May 2018 low) for a potential residual push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 1.3480 (former minor range congestion support from 04/18 May 2018 + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going down move from 17 Apr 2018 high to 29 May low of 1.3205) before risk of a retracement/pull-back (refer to yesterday report). On the flipside, a break below 1.3360 opens up scope for a pull-back/retracement towards the 1.3250/40 support (swing low areas of 29 May/01 Jun 2018 + 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going up move from 29 May 2018 low to yesterday, 06 Jun high of 1.3443).
  • AUD/USD – Trend bias: At risk of a setback. Inched higher but it did not break above the upper limit of the predefined key resistance zone at 0.7690 (refer to yesterday report). Right now, the 4 hour Stochastic oscillator has shaped a bearish divergence signal at its overbought region which indicates that upside momentum has started to abate. Maintain bearish bias below 0.7690 key resistance for a potential push down to retest 0.7585 and a break below 0.7585 (an hourly close below it) opens up scope for a further potential decline to target the next intermediate support at 0.7515 (the minor swing low of 01 Jun 2018 & the lower boundary of the minor ascending channel from 09 May 2018 low). On the other hand, a clearance above 0.7690 invalidates the bearish scenario for a further squeeze up towards the next resistance at 0.7800 (medium-term swing high of 13/19 Apr 2018 & close to 50% Fibonacci retracement of the entire down move from 26 Jan 2018 high to  09 May 2018 low).
  • NZD/USD - Trend bias: Sideways. No change, maintain neutrality stance between 0.7060 (former minor swing high area of 04 May 2018 + Fibonacci projection/retracement cluster) and 0.7000 (05 Jun 2018 minor swing low). A clearance (an hourly close) above 0.7060 triggers a potential squeeze up to retest a significant medium-term resistance at 0.7190 (the former range support from 08 Feb/20 Mar 2018 before the recent bearish breakdown that led to a decline of 330 pips + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 13 Apr 2018 high to 16 May 2018 low). On the flipside, failure to hold at 0.7000 opens up scope for a decline towards the next intermediate support of 0.6960 (the former minor swing low area of 01 Jun 2018) and below exposes the next support of 0.6900 (psychological + minor ascending trendline from 15 May 2018/the start of the current short-term rebound).
  • USD/JPY - Trend bias: Residual push up before risk of consolidation. Inched up higher as expected and hit the first intermediate resistance/target zone at 110.10/30 (printed a high of 110.26 in yesterday, 06 Jun U.S. session). Elliot Wave/fractal analysis suggests that the on-going short-term uptrend  in place since 30 May 2018 low of 108.11 is coming close to an end point of a minor bullish impulsive upleg cycle. In addition, short-term upside momentum has started to wane as the 4 hour Stochastic has flashed a bearish divergence signal at its overbought region. Maintain the bullish bias with a tightened adjusted key short-term support now at 109.75 (the median line of the minor ascending channel in place since 30 May 2018 low + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going up move from 30 May 2018 ow to yesterday, 06 Jun high of 110.26) for a potential residual push up to target the 110.60 resistance (upper boundary of the aforementioned minor ascending channel + Fibonacci retracement/projection cluster). On the other hand, failure to hold at 109.75 triggers the start of a minor corrective decline to retrace the short-term uptrend from 30 May 2018 low with next support coning in at 109.50/40 (the minor swing low areas of 02/06 Jun 2018 + 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going up move from 30 May 2018 ow to yesterday, 06 Jun high of 110.26).

Disclaimer: The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex and commodity futures, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to Forex.com or GAIN Capital refer to GAIN Capital Holdings Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.