Daily Global Macro Technical Trend Bias/Key Levels (Thurs 07 Jun)
Kelvin Wong June 7, 2018 1:04 AM
FX – Recent USD weakness seen in EUR, GBP & AUD at risk of a pause/consolidation
- EUR/USD – Trend bias: Residual push up before risk of consolidation. Continued its upward movement as expected and met the first intermediate resistance/target of 1.1760 (former minor swing low areas of 21 Nov/12 Dec 2017) where it printed a high of 1.1795 in yesterday, 06 Jun U.S. session. Elliot Wave/fractal analysis suggests the on-going short-term corrective up move from 30 May 2018 low of 1.1518 is coming towards a potential end point where the recent up move may shape a retracement/pull-back. Maintain bullish bias with a tightened key short-term support now at 1.1737 (the pull-back support of the minor “Ascending Triangle range resistance from 31 May 2018 high) for a potential residual push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 1.1880/1940 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 16 Feb 2018 high to 29 May 2018 low + former minor swing low area of 09/10 Jan 2018 that was rejected on 14 May 2018 + also now the potential breakout target of the aforementioned minor “Ascending Triangle”). However, failure to hold at 1.1737 is likely to see the start of a retracement/pull-back towards the next support at 1.1650/1616 (the minor swing low areas of 01/05 Jun 2018 + 50%/61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 30 May to today, Asian session current intraday high of 1.18000).
- GBP/USD – Trend bias: Residual push up remains in progress. No change, maintain bullish bias in any dips with a tightened adjusted key short-term support now at 1.3360 (close to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going up move from 29 May 2018 low to yesterday, 06 Jun high of 1.3443 + lower boundary of a minor ascending range configuration in place since 29 May 2018 low) for a potential residual push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 1.3480 (former minor range congestion support from 04/18 May 2018 + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going down move from 17 Apr 2018 high to 29 May low of 1.3205) before risk of a retracement/pull-back (refer to yesterday report). On the flipside, a break below 1.3360 opens up scope for a pull-back/retracement towards the 1.3250/40 support (swing low areas of 29 May/01 Jun 2018 + 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going up move from 29 May 2018 low to yesterday, 06 Jun high of 1.3443).
- AUD/USD – Trend bias: At risk of a setback. Inched higher but it did not break above the upper limit of the predefined key resistance zone at 0.7690 (refer to yesterday report). Right now, the 4 hour Stochastic oscillator has shaped a bearish divergence signal at its overbought region which indicates that upside momentum has started to abate. Maintain bearish bias below 0.7690 key resistance for a potential push down to retest 0.7585 and a break below 0.7585 (an hourly close below it) opens up scope for a further potential decline to target the next intermediate support at 0.7515 (the minor swing low of 01 Jun 2018 & the lower boundary of the minor ascending channel from 09 May 2018 low). On the other hand, a clearance above 0.7690 invalidates the bearish scenario for a further squeeze up towards the next resistance at 0.7800 (medium-term swing high of 13/19 Apr 2018 & close to 50% Fibonacci retracement of the entire down move from 26 Jan 2018 high to 09 May 2018 low).
- NZD/USD - Trend bias: Sideways. No change, maintain neutrality stance between 0.7060 (former minor swing high area of 04 May 2018 + Fibonacci projection/retracement cluster) and 0.7000 (05 Jun 2018 minor swing low). A clearance (an hourly close) above 0.7060 triggers a potential squeeze up to retest a significant medium-term resistance at 0.7190 (the former range support from 08 Feb/20 Mar 2018 before the recent bearish breakdown that led to a decline of 330 pips + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 13 Apr 2018 high to 16 May 2018 low). On the flipside, failure to hold at 0.7000 opens up scope for a decline towards the next intermediate support of 0.6960 (the former minor swing low area of 01 Jun 2018) and below exposes the next support of 0.6900 (psychological + minor ascending trendline from 15 May 2018/the start of the current short-term rebound).
- USD/JPY - Trend bias: Residual push up before risk of consolidation. Inched up higher as expected and hit the first intermediate resistance/target zone at 110.10/30 (printed a high of 110.26 in yesterday, 06 Jun U.S. session). Elliot Wave/fractal analysis suggests that the on-going short-term uptrend in place since 30 May 2018 low of 108.11 is coming close to an end point of a minor bullish impulsive upleg cycle. In addition, short-term upside momentum has started to wane as the 4 hour Stochastic has flashed a bearish divergence signal at its overbought region. Maintain the bullish bias with a tightened adjusted key short-term support now at 109.75 (the median line of the minor ascending channel in place since 30 May 2018 low + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going up move from 30 May 2018 ow to yesterday, 06 Jun high of 110.26) for a potential residual push up to target the 110.60 resistance (upper boundary of the aforementioned minor ascending channel + Fibonacci retracement/projection cluster). On the other hand, failure to hold at 109.75 triggers the start of a minor corrective decline to retrace the short-term uptrend from 30 May 2018 low with next support coning in at 109.50/40 (the minor swing low areas of 02/06 Jun 2018 + 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going up move from 30 May 2018 ow to yesterday, 06 Jun high of 110.26).
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