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Daily Global Macro Technical Trend Bias/Key Levels (Thurs 21 Jun)

FX –  USD strength remains intact with USD/JPY resuming its upleg

  • EUR/USD – Trend bias: Down move in progress. Traded sideways within 60 pips below the adjusted 1.1640 key short-term resistance as per highlighted in yesterday’s report. Current price action has consolidated to form an impending minor bearish “Pennant” continuation chart pattern that highlights a potential imminent bearish breakdown scenario. Maintain bearish bias with an adjusted key short-term resistance now at  1.1605 (the pull-back resistance of the former minor ascending trendline from 15 Jun 2018 low + “Pennant” range top) for a further potential push down to target the lower limit of the key long-term support at 1.1470/50 (the former resistance of the major basing configuration from Mar 2015 to Mar 2017). However, a break above 1.1605 negative the bearish tone for a squeeze up to retest the 19 June 2018 minor swing high area of 1.1640 and only a clearance above it reinstates the mean reversion rebound scenario towards the next resistance at 1.1720/1735 ( former minor range support from 08/13 Jun 2018 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent steep decline from 14 Jun 2018 high to 19 Jun 2018 low).
  • GBP/USD - Trend bias: Down move in progress. Yesterday’s push up seen in the early U.S. session stalled right below the 1.3230 predefined key short-term resistance (refer to yesterday report) before it retreated to hover just above yesterday, 20 Jun European session low of 1.3146. No change, maintain bearish bias with adjusted key short-term resistance now at 1.3220 (close to yesterday, U.S. session high) for a further potential push down to target the next intermediate support at 1.3020/3000 (minor swing low areas of 05 Oct/03 Nov 2017 + psychological). However, a clearance above 1.3220 reinstates the mean reversion rebound scenario to retest the next intermediate resistance at 1.3300/3330 (former minor swing low area of 13 Jun 2018).
  • AUD/USD Trend bias: Down move in progress. Yesterday’s Asian session push up stalled below the 0.7425 predefined short-term resistance as expected (refer to yesterday report) as it printed an intraday high of 0.7408. No change, maintain bearish bias below adjusted key short-term resistance now at 0.7410 (close to yesterday, 20 Jun minor swing high) for a potential residual push down to target next intermediate support at 0.7330/7300 (09 May 2017 swing low area + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from Jan 2016 low to 26 Jan 2018 high) before risk of  a minor consolidation phase materialises as the 4 hour Stochastic oscillator is coming close to an extreme oversold level of 6. However, a clearance above 0.7410 reinstates the mean reversion rebound scenario towards the 0.7480/7500 resistance (former minor swing low area of 30 May 2018 + 50% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going decline from 12 Jun 2018 high to 19 Jun 2018 low).
  • NZD/USD – Trend bias: Sideways. Pushed down as expected and almost met the support/target of 0.6820 (printed a current intraday low of 0.6832 in today, 21 Jun Asian session). Right now, it is just hovering above a key medium-term range support zone of 0.6820/0.6780 that has managed to stall previous declines since 11 May 2017  coupled with the 4 hour Stochastic oscillator that is coming close to an extreme oversold level of 8. Therefore prefer to turn neutral now between 0.6780 and 0.6890 (former minor swing low area of 19 Jun 2018 + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going decline from 14 Jun 2018 minor swing high to today, 21 Jun Asian session current intraday low of 0.6832. An hourly close above 0.6890 sees a mean reversion rebound scenario to retest the 0.6970/6990 intermediate resistance (former minor swing low area of 14 Jun 2018). On the flipside, failure to hold at 0.6780 opens up scope for a further potential waterfall slide to target the next intermediate support at 0.6675 (swing low area of 30 May 2018 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from Aug 2015 low to July 2017 high) in the first step.
  • USD/JPY - Trend bias: Up move resumes. Broke above the 110.30 key short-term resistance as per highlighted in yesterday report that invalidated the “residual push down scenario”. Flip back to a bullish bias in any dips above 109.90 key short-term support (the minor swing low area of 20 Jun 2018 & close to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going recovery from 19 Jun 2018 low of 109.53 to today, 21 Jun Asian session current intraday high of 110.66) for a further potential push up to retest the recent minor range resistance at 110.80/90 before targeting the 111.40/60 significant short-term/intermediate resistance zone (the minor swing high area of 21 May 2018, upper boundary of the short-term ascending channel in place since 19 Jun 2018 low, the median line of the medium-term ascending channel from 26 Mar 2018 low). However, failure to hold at 109.90 reinstates the deeper pull-back scenario for a further slide towards the he key medium-term support at 109.55/25 (lower boundary of the medium-term ascending channel in place since 26 Mar 2018 low, minor swing low area of 08 Jun 2018 & Fibonacci retracement/projection cluster).

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