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Daily Global Macro Technical Trend Bias/Key Levels (Tues 19 Jun)

FX –  USD strength resumes except against JPY

  • EUR/USD – Trend bias: Minor mean reversion rebound coming close to inflection zone for another potential downleg. The pair has inched up as expected and almost met the minor mean reversion rebound target/resistance of 1.1650/1.1660 (refer to yesterday report). It printed a current intraday high of 1.1644 in today, 19 Jun Asian session. The 4 hour Stochastic oscillator has reached its overbought region coupled with a bearish divergence signal seen in the hourly Stochastic oscillator. These observations suggest yesterday’s upside momentum of price action has started to wane. Flip back to a bearish bias in any bounce below key short-term resistance now at 1.1670 (former minor range support from 31 May/05 Jun 2018 + close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the recent steep decline from 14 Jun 2018 high to 15 Jun 2018 low) for another potential downleg to retest last week low of 1.1543 before targeting the lower limit of the key long-term support at 1.1470/50 (the former resistance of the major basing configuration from Mar 2015 to Mar 2017). However, a clearance above 1.1670 shall see an extension of the mean reversion rebound towards the next resistance at 1.1720/1735 (the former minor range support from 08/13 Jun 2018 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent steep decline from 14 Jun 2018 high to 15 Jun 2018 low).
  • GBP/USD - Trend bias: Minor mean reversion rebound coming close to inflection zone for another potential downleg. The pair has inched up as expected and printed a current intraday high of 1.3273 in today, 19 Jun Asian session. 47 pips below the mean reversion rebound expected target/resistance of 1.3320/3340 (refer to yesterday report).  Current price action has started to evolve into a minor “Pennant” bearish continuation chart pattern. Flip back to a bearish bias in any bounce below key short-term resistance at 1.3330 (former minor swing low area of 13 Jun 2018 + 50% Fibonacci retracement of the steep decline from 14 Jun to 15 Jun 2018 low) for another potential downleg to retest last week low of 1.3210 before targeting the next intermediate support at 1.3020/3000 (minor swing low areas of 05 Oct/03 Nov 2017 + psychological). However, a clearance above 1.3340 shall see an extension of the mean reversion rebound towards the next resistance at 1.3400/3420 (minor descending trendline from 07 Jun 2018 + 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of down move from 07 Jun 2018 high to 15 Jun 2018 low).
  • AUD/USD Trend bias: Down move resumes. The pair failed to meet the minor mean reversion target/resistance of 0.7480/7500 as it only printed a high of 0.7454 in yesterday, 18 Jun European session before it broke below the 0.7410 support. Flip back to a bearish bias in any bounce below key short-term resistance now at 0.7450 (18 Jun 2018 minor swing high area + close to 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going decline from 13 Jun 2018 high to today, 19 Jun Asian session current intraday low of 0.7393) for a further potential down move to target the next intermediate support at 0.7330/7300 (09 May 2017 swing low area + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from Jan 2016 low to 26 Jan 2018 high). However, a clearance above 0.7450 reinstates the minor mean reversion rebound scenario for a push up towards the 0.7480/7500 intermediate resistance.
  • NZD/USD - Trend bias: Down move resumes. The pair inched up but failed to break above the 0.6960 upper limit of the short-term neutrality zone (refer to yesterday report). It printed a high of 0.6956 in yesterday, 18 Jun European session and started to evolve into a minor “Pennant” bearish continuation chart pattern. Flip back to a bearish bias in any bounce below key short-term resistance at 0.6960 (15 June 2018 minor swing high area + close to the “Pennant” upper boundary) for another potential down leg to target 0.6900 before the 0.6820 medium-term range support in place since 08 May 2017. On the other hand, a clearance above 0.6960 reinstates the minor mean reversion rebound scenario towards the 0.6980/6995 intermediate resistance (minor swing low area of 05 Jun/14 Jun 2018 + 50%/61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the steep decline from 14 Jun 2018 high to 18 Jun 2018 low).
  • USD/JPY - Trend bias: Deeper pull-back validated. The pair had broken below the 109.90 lower limit of the short-term neutrality zone as per highlighted in yesterday report. Right now, it is likely undergoing a deeper pull-back within its medium-term uptrend phase in place since 26 Mar 2018 low. Flip to a bearish bias in any bounce below 110.15 key short-term resistance (pull-back resistance of the former minor ascending trendline from 30 May 2018 low) for a further potential push down to target the next intermediate supports at 109.60 and 109.20 (former minor swing high of 08 Jun 2018 + minor swing low area of 08 Jun 2018 + lower boundary of the medium-term ascending channel from 26 Mar 2018 low). On the other hand, a clearance above 110.15 negates the bearish tone for a squeeze up to retest the minor range resistance at 110.80/90 (swing high areas of 14/15 Jun 2018).

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