Daily Global Macro Technical Trend Bias/Key Levels (Wed 13 Jun)
Kelvin Wong June 12, 2018 11:36 PM
FX – USD continues to show strength with outperformance against JPY
- EUR/USD – Trend bias: Sideways with bearish bias. Traded sideways within the short-term neutrality zone and ended yesterday, 12 Jun U.S. session with a daily close below the previous day (Mon, 11 Jun) bearish “Shooting Star” candlestick low of 1.1755. These observations indicate the lack of upside momentum. Maintain neutrality stance between 1.1725 and 1.1840. A break below 1.1725 (an hourly close below it) opens up scope for the continuation of the medium-term down move in place since Apr 2018 for a potential push down towards the next intermediate supports at 1.1650/1616 in the first step (the minor swing low areas of 01/05 Jun 2018 + 50%/61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 29 May 2018 low to 07 Jun 2018 high) . On the other hand, a clearance above 1.1840 (an hourly close above it) reinstates the short-term bullish tone for a potential push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 1.1880/1940 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 16 Feb 2018 high to 29 May 2018 low + former minor swing low area of 09/10 Jan 2018 that was rejected on 14 May 2018 + also now the potential breakout target of the aforementioned minor “Ascending Triangle”).
- GBP/USD – Trend bias: Sideways with risk of a deeper pull-back/retracement. Continued to trade in a tight range of 80 pips for 5th consecutive day since 06 Jun 2018. No change, maintain neutrality stance between 1.3480 and 1.3350 (adjusted to take into account of last Fri, 08 Jun intraday low). A break below 1.3350 (an hourly close below it) is likely to trigger the continuation of the medium-term down move in place since 17 Apr 2018 high towards the next intermediate supports at 1.3300 (minor swing low areas of 04/05 Jun 2018 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 29 May 2018 low to 07 Jun high of 1.3472) follow by 1.3260 (minor swing low area of 01 Jun 2018) in the first step. On the flipside, a clearance above 1.3480 opens up scope for a further squeeze up towards the next intermediate resistance at 1.3590/3650 (minor range resistance of 08/14 May 2018 + 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the down move from 17 Apr 2018 high to 29 May low of 1.3205).
- AUD/USD – Trend bias: Deeper pull-back/retracement remains in progress. Inched down lower as expected in yesterday, 12 Jun U.S. session to retest the previous day (Mon, 11 Jun) “Spinning Top” candlestick low of 0.7575. These observations suggest a built-up of downside momentum of price action. No change, maintain bearish bias with an adjusted key short-term resistance now at 0.7620 (the recent minor range top formed on 11/12 Jun 2018) for a further potential push down to target the next intermediate support at 0.7515 (the minor swing low of 01 Jun 2018 & the lower boundary of the minor ascending channel from 09 May 2018 low). A break below 0.7515 shall see the continuation of the medium-term down move in place since 14 Mar 2018 high for a further potential decline to retest the 09 May 2018 swing low area of 0.7450/0.7410. However, a clearance above 0.7620 negates the bearish tone for a squeeze up to retest 0.7675/7690 key medium-term resistance (the pull-back resistance of the former major bearish “Ascending Wedge” support from Jan 2016 + the former medium-term swing low area of 20 Mar 2018).
- NZD/USD - Trend bias: Sideways with a bearish bias. Continued to trade sideways within the short-term neutrality zone with signs of weakness that continued to emerge. The pair had ended yesterday, 12 Jun U.S. session with a daily close below the previous day (Mon, 11 Jun) bearish “Shooting Star” candlestick low of 0.7015. Maintain neutrality stance between 0.7060 (former minor swing high area of 04 May 2018 + Fibonacci projection/retracement cluster) and 0.7000 (05 Jun 2018 minor swing low). A break below 0.7000 opens up scope for a decline towards the next intermediate support of 0.6960 (the former minor swing low area of 01 Jun 2018) and below exposes the next support of 0.6900 (psychological + minor ascending trendline from 15 May 2018/the start of the current short-term rebound). On the flipside, a clearance (an hourly close) above 0.7060 triggers a potential squeeze up to retest a significant medium-term resistance at 0.7190 (the former range support from 08 Feb/20 Mar 2018 before the recent bearish breakdown that led to a decline of 330 pips + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 13 Apr 2018 high to 16 May 2018 low).
- USD/JPY - Trend bias: Up move remains intact. Pushed up as expected and cleared above yesterday, 12 Jun minor swing high area of 110.50. No signs of bullish exhaustion, maintain bullish bias in any dips with an adjusted key short-term support now at 110.10 (yesterday, 12 Jun low + minor ascending trendline from 08 Jun 2018 low) for a further potential up move to target 111.00 (upper boundary of the minor ascending channel support from 30 May 2018 low + psychological level) follow by the 111.40/60 intermediate resistance in the first step (minor swing high area of 21 May 2018 + median line of the aforementioned medium-term ascending channel + Fibonacci projection cluster). On the other hand, a break below 110.10 negates the bullish tone for a deeper pull-back towards the next intermediate support at 109.60 (former minor swing of 08 Jun 2018 + lower boundary of the minor ascending channel support from 30 May 2018 low).
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