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Daily Global Macro Technical Trend Bias/Key Levels (Wed 20 Jun)

FX –  Further USD strength except against JPY

  • EUR/USD – Trend bias: Down move in progress. The pair drifted down lower as expected and printed a fresh minor lower low of 1.1530 in yesterday, 19 Jun European session. No change, maintain bearish bias with an adjusted key short-term resistance now at 1.1640 (19 June 2018 minor swing high) for a further potential push down to target the lower limit of the key long-term support at 1.1470/50 (the former resistance of the major basing configuration from Mar 2015 to Mar 2017). On the other hand, a clearance above 1.1640 reinstates the mean reversion rebound scenario towards the next resistance at 1.1720/1735 ( former minor range support from 08/13 Jun 2018 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent steep decline from 14 Jun 2018 high to 19 Jun 2018 low).
  • GBP/USD - Trend bias: Down move in progress. Broke down from the minor bearish “Pennant” continuation chart pattern as expected (refer to yesterday report) and printed a fresh minor lower low of 1.3150 in yesterday, 19 Jun European session. No signs of bearish exhaustion, maintain bearish bias with an adjusted key short-term resistance now at 1.3230 (former minor swing low areas of 15/18 Jun 2018 + minor descending trendline from 14 Jun 2018 minor swing high) for a further potential push down to target the next intermediate support at 1.3020/3000 (minor swing low areas of 05 Oct/03 Nov 2017 + psychological). On the other hand, a clearance above 1.3230 reinstates the mean reversion rebound scenario to test the next resistance at  1.3300/3330 (former minor swing low area of 13 Jun 2018).
  • AUD/USD Trend bias: Down move in progress. Continued to inch down lower as expected and printed a fresh minor lower low of 0.7347 in yesterday, 19 Jun European session. No change, maintain bearish bias with adjusted key short-term resistance now at 0.7425 (19 Jun 2018 minor swing high + close to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going decline from 12 Jun 2018 high to 19 Jun 2018 low) for a further potential push down to target the next intermediate support at 0.7330/7300 (09 May 2017 swing low area + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from Jan 2016 low to 26 Jan 2018 high). On the other hand, a clearance above 0.7425 reinstates the mean reversion rebound scenario towards the 0.7480/7500 resistance (former minor swing low area of 30 May 2018 + 50% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going decline from 12 Jun 2018 high to 19 Jun 2018 low).
  • NZD/USD - Trend bias: Down move resumes in progress. Inched down lower as expected and met the first intermediate support/target of 0.6900. It printed a fresh minor lower low of 0.6885 in yesterday, 19 Jun European session. Maintain bearish bias below adjusted key short-term resistance now at 0.6925 (former minor swing low areas of 18/19 Jun 2018 + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going decline from 14 Jun high to 19 Jun 2018 low) for a further potential push down to target the 0.6820 medium-term range support in place since 08 May 2017. On the other hand, a clearance above 0.6925 reinstates the mean reversion rebound scenario towards the 0.6970/6990 resistance (former minor swing low area of 14 Jun 2018 + 50%/61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going decline from 14 Jun high to 19 Jun 2018 low).
  • USD/JPY - Trend bias: Residual push down of pull-back phase. Inched down lower as expected and met the first intermediate support/target of 109.60 (printed a low of 109.55 in yesterday, 19 Jun European session) before it stage a rebound to record an current intraday high of 110.06 in today, 20 Jun Asian session. No signs of bearish exhaustion yet, maintain bearish bias below 110.30 key short-term resistance (former minor swing low area of 18 Jun 2018 + minor descending trendline from 15 Jun 2018 high + former minor ascending trendline from 30 May 2018 low) for a potential residual push down to retest 109.55 before targeting the next support at 109.35/20 (lower boundary of the medium-term ascending channel from 26 Mar 2018 low + minor swing low areas of 08/11 Jun 2018 + Fibonacci projection/retracement cluster) before a potential recovery materialise. However a clearance above 110.30 invalidates the pull-back scenario to see the start of a fresh upleg phase to target the recent 110.80/90 minor swing high areas of 14/15 Jun 2018 in the first step.

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