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Daily Global Macro Technical Trend Bias/Key Levels (Wed 27 Jun)

FX – Mix bag with EUR & GBP still holding above their supports against USD

  • EUR/USD – Trend bias: Mean reversion rebound phase intact. The pair pull-backed by 86 pips from its 26 Jun 2018 minor swing high of 1.1720 and managed to hold right above the predefined 1.1630 key short-term support (minor swing low areas of 22/25 Jun 2018 + close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going rebound from 21 Jun 2018 low to 26 Jun 2018 high) as per highlighted in yesterday report. In addition, the 4 hour Stochastic oscillator has dipped back into its oversold region coupled with a bullish divergence signal seen in the hourly Stochastic oscillator. These observations suggest that yesterday’s slide in price action has started to lose downside momentum. Maintain bullish bias for a potential minor mean reversion rebound to target the next intermediate resistances at 1.1735 (the former minor swing low areas of 08/13 Jun 2018) and above it sees a further push up towards  1.1840/1880 (minor range resistance from 07 Jun/14 Jun 2018 + 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 27 Mar 2018 high to 21 Jun 2018 low). On the other hand, a break below 1.1630 reinstates the bearish tone for a slide to test the lower limit of the key long-term support at 1.1470/50 (the former resistance of the major basing configuration from Mar 2015 to Mar 2017).
  • GBP/USD - Trend bias: Mean reversion rebound phase intact. The pair pull-backed by 100 pips from its 26 Jun 2018 minor swing high of 1.3292. It tested the predefined 1.3210 key short-term support (former minor swing high of 20 Jun 2018 + 50% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going rebound form 21 Jun 2018 low to 22 Jun 2018 high) before it inched higher in yesterday, 26 Jun U.S. session (printed an intraday low of 1.3193). No change, maintain bullish bias with key short-term support at 1.3210/3190 (excess) and added an upside trigger level at 1.3285 (the minor descending trendline from 22 Jun 2018 minor swing high). An hourly close above 1.3285 increases the odds of a further minor mean reversion rebound to target the next intermediate resistance at 1.3445/3470 (swing high areas of 07/14 Jun 2018). On the other hand, a break below 1.3210/3190 reinstates the bearish tone for a slide back towards the 1.3020/3000 support (minor swing low areas of 05 Oct/03 Nov 2017 + psychological).
  • AUD/USD - Trend bias: Down move resumes. The minor mean reversion rebound from 21 Jun 2018 low of 0.7345 had fallen short of our expectation as it failed to stage a further push up towards 0.7480 and broke below he 0.7385 key short-term support in today, 27 Jun Asian session. Flip back to a bearish bias with 0.7400 as the key short-term resistance (former minor swing low of 25 Jun 2018 + minor descending trendline from 22 Jun 2018 high) for further potential push down towards the 0.7330/7300 support (09 May 2017 swing low area + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from Jan 2016 low to 26 Jan 2018 high). An hourly close below 0.7300 sees a further downleg to target the next intermediate support at 0.7240/7220 (lower boundary of a medium-term descending channel from 26 Jan 2018 high + Fibonacci projection cluster).
  • NZD/ISD - Trend bias: At risk of a major bearish breakdown.  Another choppy movement for the pair as it failed again to make any gains above the 0.6880 key short-term support and plummeted below it and extended its slide into yesterday, 26 Jun U.S. session ahead of  RBNZ monetary policy meeting later at 2100 GMT. Right now, it is coming close to the 0.6780 neckline support of a major bearish “Double Top” configuration in place since late July 2017. A daily close below 0.6780 opens up scope for another medium-term bearish impulsive downleg phase to target the next intermediate support at 0.6675/50 in the first step (30 May 2016 medium-term swing low + 1.00 Fibonacci projection of the down move from 27 Jul 2017 high to 17 Nov 2017 low projected from 16 Feb 2018 high). Only a break above 0.6920 (minor swing high areas of 23/25 Jun 2018) reinstates the minor mean reversion rebound scenario for a shot at the 0.6970/6990 resistance (former minor swing low area of 14 Jun 2018 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline from 06 Jun 2018 high to 21 Jun 2018 low).
  • USD/JPY - Trend bias: Push up towards range resistance. Cleared above the 109.90 upper limit of the short-term neutrality range. Right now, the pair may see a further potential push up to test the 110.40/55 intermediate resistance (minor swing high of 21 Jun 2018 + minor descending trendline from 15 Jun 2018 + Fibonacci retracement/projection cluster) holding above the 109.70 key short-term support (minor ascending trendline from 26 Jun 2018 low). However, a break below 109.70 invalidates the push up scenario for a slide to retest the 109.25 range support in place since 08 Jun 2018.

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