Daily Global Macro Technicals Trend Bias/Key Levels (Thurs 25 Jan)
Kelvin Wong January 25, 2018 12:01 AM
FX - USD weakness in extension phase , minor corrective rebound on hold for now
- EUR/USD – Rallied as expected and hit the short-term resistance/target of 1.2375/2390 (printed a high of 1.2415 in yesterday, 24 Jan U.S. session) reinforced by a remark made by U.S. Treasury Secretary that stated the economic benefits of a weak USD on the WEF in Davos. The short to medium-term bullish trend is still intact, maintain bullish bias in any dips (ECB event risk later where Draghi may attempt to talk down the recent strength of the EUR during the press conference) above a tightened key short-term support at 1.2340/2320 (former minor swing high of 17 Jan 2018 + lower boundary of minor ascending channel from 23 Jan 2018 low + 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent burst up from 23 Jan 2018 low to yesterday high) for a further potential upleg to target the next near-term resistance at 1.2475 (upper boundary of the aforementioned minor ascending channel + 2.00 Fibonacci projection from 18 Jan 2018 low) and above 1.2475 opens up a further rally towards a major resistance of 1.2520/2560 (Fibonacci cluster + exit potential of the “Double Bottom” bullish breakout configuration formed in Mar 2015 to July 2017). However, failure to hold above 1.2320 should negate the bullish tone for a deeper slide towards the 1.2270 support (former minor range top of 22 Jan/23 Jan + minor ascending trendline from 18 Jan 2018 low).
- GBP/USD – Broke above 1.4130 upper neutrality zone that has validated an extension of the up move from 11 Jan 2018 minor swing low. Flip back to bullish bias in any dips above key short-term support at 1.4100 (median line of the minor ascending channel from 11 Jan 2018 low + 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going rally from 20 Jan 2018 low) for a further potential push up towards the next resistance at 1.4500/4570 (Fibonacci cluster + major congestion zone of Feb/May 2016 before Brexit vote). On the other hand, a break below 1.4100 should negate the bullish tone to see a deeper pull-back towards the next support at 1.4000/3930 (lower boundary of the minor ascending channel from 11 Jan 2018 low + former minor swing high areas of 18/19 Jan 2018).
- AUD/USD – Broke above 0.8040 that invalidated the minor corrective decline scenario. Up move from 09 Jan 2018 low is likely in an extension phase, flip back to bullish bias in any dips above 0.8040/20 key short-term support for a further potential push up towards the next resistance at 0.8130/8170 (Fibonacci cluster + swing high of 08 Sep 2017 + major pull-back resistance of a former ascending trendline from Apr 2001 low). On the flipside, failure to hold above 0.8020 should negate the bullish tone for a deeper slide towards the next support at 0.7960 (23 Jan 2018 low + ascending channel support from 09 Dec 2017 low).
- NZD/USD – Minor decline scenario has been invalidated through the bullish break of 0.7360. Flip back to bullish bias above key short-term support now at 0.7310 (former minor range tops of 16/18/19 Jan 2018 + close to 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 08 Dec 2017 low to yesterday high) for a further potential push up towards the next resistance at 0.7530 (medium-term swing high area of 26 July 2017). However, a break below 0.7310 should negate the bullish tone for a slide back to retest the 0.7270/50 support (19/22 minor swing low areas + ascending channel support from 08 Dec 2017 low).
- USD/JPY – Broke below 1110.00/109.90 has validated a further down move. Turn bearish below key short-term resistance at 109.50/80 (today current intraday high + 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline from 23 Jan 2018 high to yesterday low) for a further potential push down to target a major support zone at 108.40/108.00 (Fibonacci projection cluster + major ascending trendline from Jun 2016 low). However, a push up above 109.80 should trigger a minor corrective rebound to retest 110.25 (former swing low areas of 16/17 Jan 2018 + descending trendline from 08 Jan 2018 high).
Commodities – WTI broke above 65.20 & Gold validated further potential upside
- Gold – Bullish break above the 1340 upper limit neutrality zone. Flip back to bullish bias above 1350 key short-term support (minor swing low of 25 Jan 2018 + former swing high area of 08 Sep 201) for further potential push up target the significant resistance of 1375/1378 (major upside trigger level for a potential multi-month up move). On the flipside, failure to hold above 1350 should negate the bullish tone for a deeper pull-back to retest 1340.
- WTI Crude (Mar 2018) – Rallied as expected and surpassed the 62.20 medium-term resistance. Maintain bullish bias in any dips above 64.90 key short-term support (former minor swing high areas of 16/24 Jan 2018) for another round of potential upleg towards the next near-term resistance of 67.60/68.40 (Fibonacci projection cluster + upper boundary of medium-term ascending channel from 14 Dec 2017 low). Below 64.90 should negate the bullish tone for a deeper slide to retest the minor range support of 63.00/62.80 in place since 12 Jan 2018.
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