Dollar all over the place as risk appetite turns sour
Fawad Razaqzada June 27, 2017 12:52 PM
The dollar has been all over the place today: rising sharply against some currencies and falling hard against others. The European currencies have been the clear winners, while Asian currencies have tanked.
The dollar has been all over the place today: rising sharply against some currencies and falling hard against others. The European currencies have been the clear winners, while Asian currencies have tanked. In North America, the Canadian dollar has been supported by the rebound in crude oil. With equities also struggling after the major indices gave back big gains yesterday, “risk-off” is written all over the financial markets today.
Earlier, the EUR/USD finally rose to clear the 1.1300 handle after Mario Draghi, the European Central Bank President, said that the “threat of deflation is gone and reflationary forces are at play" in the Eurozone. This was a clear indication that the ECB may be ready to reduce its monetary stimulus programmes earlier than anticipated. As the EUR/USD went up, down went the inversely-correlated USD/CHF. The GBP/USD gained further ground amid the lack of any significantly dovish remarks from the Bank of England’s Governor Mark Carney, after his economic adviser had hinted at the prospects of voting for an interest rate rise soon. If anything, the latest Financial Stability Report, published today, was broadly positive. The USD/JPY hit new highs on the week and month, with yen continuing to slide after the Bank of Japan’s dovish remarks at its last policy meeting. Other Asian currencies also weakened as the AUD/USD and NZD/USD both relinquished their sharp overnight gains. The other major commodity currency, the Canadian dollar, which has been underpinned by a hawkish Bank of Canada in recent days, found further support as oversold crude prices extended their gains for the fourth consecutive day.
EUR/NZD FX pair to watch
With interest rates being among the highest in developed economies, the New Zealand dollar is considered to be a risk sensitive currencies. So when it is “risk on” it tends to outperform. Well, today is “risk-off” and so it has fallen sharply, especially against the euro. The EUR/NZD has actually formed a major reversal pattern at key 1.5250/60 support area. This level was previously support and resistance, and corresponds with the 200-day moving average. As can be seen, it has turned sharply higher from here, taking out both sides of the recent range. With the last resistance being at 1.5400, this level should be watched for a potential re-test. For as long as this level hols as support, the bias would remain bullish now, unless we see some distinct bearish signs at higher levels first. Consequently, the short-term overhead resistance levels should be viewed – for now – as bullish objectives rather than bearish entry levels.
Source: eSignal and FOREX.com.
Disclaimer: The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex and commodity futures, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to Forex.com or GAIN Capital refer to GAIN Capital Holdings Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.