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EUR/CAD at risk of a major bearish breakdown as ECB looms

Short-term technical outlook on EUR/CAD (Thurs 25 Jul)



click to enlarge charts

Key elements

  • The EUR/CAD cross pair has continued to inch lower by -9.58% from its major range resistance at 1.6105. Right now, it is testing a major ascending trendline in pace since Aug 2012 low now acting as a support at 1.4600.
  • The minor impulsive down move sequence in place since 01 Jun 2019 high of 1.5161 remains intact with key short-term resistance at 1.4730 (also 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the entire decline from 01 Jun 2019 high to 16 Jul 2019 low). (see 4-hour chart)
  • Shor-term momentum remains negative as indicated by the 4-hour RSI oscillator where it has broken below a corresponding support at the 44 level.
  •  The next significant near-term support rests at 1.4500 which is defined by the lower boundary of the minor descending channel from 01 Jun 2019 high and a Fibonacci projection cluster.

Key Levels (1 to 3 days)

Intermediate resistance: 1.4675

Pivot (key resistance): 1.4730

Supports: 1.4600 & 1.4500

Next resistance: 1.4875

Conclusion

If the 1.4730 key short-term pivotal resistance is not surpassed and a break below 1.4600 reinforces the continuation of the minor impulsive down move to target the next support at 1.4500 in the first step.

However, a clearance with an hourly close above 1.4730 negates the bearish tone to open up scope for a corrective rebound towards the 1.4875 resistance (also the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the entire decline from 01 Jun 2019 high to 16 Jul 2019 low).

Charts are from eSignal



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