FX Brief: Signs Of A Global Slowdown Continue To Appear
Matt Simpson July 17, 2019 1:20 AM
A summary of news and snapshot of moves from today’s Asia session.
- Signs of a global slowdown continue to appear with Singapore’s exports sinking to their lowest level since February 2013 at -17.3% YoY (-7.6% MoM). This follows on from Q2 GDP contracting and raises the potential for a technical recession.
- WTO appeal’s judges ruled that the US didn’t fully comply with a previous WTO ruling and could face Chinese sanctions.
- Volatility remained calm across asset classes (even Bitcoin) which saw FX pairs confined well within their typical daily ranges, following a relatively turbulent US session.
- GBP/USD remains just off 25-month lows, WTI trades in a small range below $58 after its most bearish session in -weeks, gold continues to coil around $1400. CHF and GBP are the strongest majors, NZD and EUR are the weakest, but difficult to look too much into this given the small ranges.
- GBP is already in the doldrums, but today’s inflation set could probably find a way to make it worse if it falls short of expectations. With inflation around BoE’s target, it may not be hot enough to warrant that hike, which already seems a far stretch given the dovish undertone from BoE of late.
- Inflation for the Eurozone are final reads, so less likely to instil volatility (although that’s not to say it should be ignored).
- Canada’s economic data has continued to excel relative to expectations, so perhaps a CPI beat is not too difficult to imagine. CAD crosses are the clear focus here.
Disclaimer: The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex and commodity futures, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to Forex.com or GAIN Capital refer to GAIN Capital Holdings Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.