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Key Upcoming Market-Movers

Week Beginning October 16, 2017

This week features the potentially pivotal 19th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, which begins on Wednesday. Developments during this major meeting of top government leaders in the world’s second largest economy could make a significant impact on the Chinese yuan, Australian dollar, and US dollar, among others. The Australian dollar could also be impacted by the release of RBA meeting minutes on Tuesday and the Australian jobs report on Thursday. The week additionally features critical economic data releases potentially affecting the British pound, including UK CPI inflation data on Tuesday, key UK jobs numbers on Wednesday, and retail sales figures on Thursday.

  • Tuesday, October 17:
    • New Zealand Consumer Price Index (Q/Q)
    • Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
    • UK Consumer Price Index (Y/Y)
    • Euro Area Final Consumer Price Index (Y/Y)
  • Wednesday, October 18:
    • Commencement of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China
    • UK Average Earnings Index, Unemployment Rate, and Jobless Claims
    • US Building Permits and Housing Starts
  • Thursday, October 19:
    • Australia Employment Change and Unemployment Rate
    • China Gross Domestic Product and Industrial Production
    • UK Retail Sales (M/M)
    • US Weekly Unemployment Claims
  • Friday, October 20:
    • Canada Consumer Price Index (M/M) and Retail Sales

Week Beginning October 23, 2017

This otherwise relatively light week in terms of global economic data will be dominated by two major central bank decisions – the Bank of Canada (BoC) on Wednesday and the European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday. Clearly, the Canadian dollar and the euro will be the major focus as markets assess whether the BoC will continue its policy path to higher interest rates and if the ECB will provide any further indication of plans to taper its massive economic stimulus program.

  • Monday, October 23:
    • Flash Manufacturing PMI and Flash Services PMI for France, Germany, and the Euro Area
  • Wednesday, October 25:
    • Australia Consumer Price Index (Q/Q)
    • UK Preliminary Gross Domestic Product (Q/Q) and Bank of England Inflation Report Hearings
    • US Durable Goods Orders (M/M)
    • Bank of Canada Overnight Rate, Rate Statement, Monetary Policy Report, and Press Conference
  • Thursday, October 26:
    • European Central Bank Minimum Bid Rate and Press Conference
    • US Weekly Unemployment Claims and Pending Home Sales (M/M)
  • Friday, October 27:
    • US Advance Gross Domestic Product (Q/Q)

Week Beginning October 30, 2017

This week will be an exceptionally busy one in terms of key macroeconomic events and data releases. The week begins with the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation indicator, the PCE price index, which could impact the Fed’s policy stance and, in turn, the US dollar.

Tuesday features the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision, monetary policy statement, and outlook report, which will be critical for the Japanese yen.

On Wednesday, the Fed will take center stage once again on the conclusion of its FOMC meeting and the release of its rate decision and policy statement. No changes are expected at this meeting – markets are currently expecting the next rate hike to occur in December – but the content of this November meeting will be important in setting expectations going forward. Also from the US on Wednesday will be the ISM manufacturing PMI data along with the ADP private employment release, a heavily anticipated precursor to the official non-farm payrolls report. Outside of the US on Wednesday, other key releases will include the New Zealand employment figures and key manufacturing PMI data from the UK, China, and the euro area.

On Thursday, the clear focus will be on the Bank of England’s interest rate decision, monetary policy summary, and inflation report, all of which are highly likely to make a significant impact on the British pound.

Finally, on Friday, the US takes center stage once again as US non-farm payrolls data is released, along with wage growth numbers and the unemployment rate. Aside from these major US jobs figures, key services PMI data will also be released from the US, UK, euro area, and China.

  • Monday, October 30:
    • US PCE Price Index (M/M), Personal Spending (M/M), and Personal Income (M/M)
  • Tuesday, October 31:
    • China Manufacturing PMI and Non-Manufacturing PMI
    • Bank of Japan Policy Rate, Monetary Policy Statement, Outlook Report, and Press Conference
    • Euro Area Consumer Price Index Flash Estimate (Y/Y), Preliminary Flash Gross Domestic Product (Q/Q), Economic Forecasts, and Unemployment Rate
    • Canada Gross Domestic Product (M/M)
    • US CB Consumer Confidence
  • Wednesday, November 1:
    • New Zealand Employment Change (Q/Q) and Unemployment Rate
    • China Caixin Manufacturing PMI
    • Euro Area Final Manufacturing PMI
    • UK Manufacturing PMI
    • US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
    • US ISM Manufacturing PMI
    • US Federal Funds Rate and FOMC Statement
  • Thursday, November 2:
    • Australia Trade Balance
    • UK Construction PMI
    • Bank of England Official Bank Rate, MPC Official Bank Rate Votes, Monetary Policy Summary, and Inflation Report
    • US Weekly Unemployment Claims
  • Friday, November 3:
    • Australia Retail Sales (M/M)
    • China Caixin Services PMI
    • Euro Area Final Services PMI
    • UK Services PMI
    • Canada Trade Balance
    • US Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings
    • US Trade Balance
    • US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

Week Beginning November 6, 2017

After a frenzied previous week, this week slows down considerably, but still features two major central bank decisions – the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on Tuesday and Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) on Thursday. The AUD/NZD currency pair will clearly be in focus during the week. Another major event will occur on Friday with Canada’s release of its key employment data.

  • Monday, November 6:
    • New Zealand Inflation Expectations (Q/Q)
  • Tuesday, November 7:
    • Reserve Bank of Australia Cash Rate and Rate Statement
  • Thursday, November 9:
    • Reserve Bank of New Zealand Official Cash Rate, Rate Statement, Monetary Policy Statement, and Press Conference
    • China Consumer Price Index (Y/Y) and Producer Price Index (Y/Y)
    • UK Manufacturing Production (M/M)
    • US Weekly Unemployment Claims
  • Friday, November 10:
    • Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Statement
    • Canada Employment Change and Unemployment Rate

Week Beginning November 13, 2017

This mid-November week will feature major inflation data from key markets including the UK, US, euro area, and Canada. From the UK, the year-over-year CPI release and the Bank of England’s inflation report hearings will take place on Tuesday, along with the UK jobs report on Wednesday and retail sales on Thursday. From the US, PPI and CPI will be released on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively, while US retail sales data also comes out on Wednesday. The euro area reports quarterly GDP on Tuesday and annual CPI on Thursday. Finally, Canada’s CPI and retail sales releases occur on Friday.

  • Monday, November 13:
    • New Zealand Retail Sales (Q/Q)
  • Tuesday, November 14:
    • China Industrial Production (Y/Y)
    • UK Consumer Price Index (Y/Y)
    • Euro Area Flash Gross Domestic Product (Q/Q)
    • Bank of England Inflation Report Hearings
    • US Producer Price Index (M/M)
  • Wednesday, November 15:
    • Japan Preliminary Gross Domestic Product (Q/Q)
    • UK Average Earnings Index, Unemployment Rate, and Jobless Claims
    • US Consumer Price Index (M/M) and Retail Sales (M/M)
  • Thursday, November 16:
    • Australia Employment Change and Unemployment Rate
    • UK Retail Sales (M/M)
    • Euro Area Final Consumer Price Index (Y/Y)
    • US Weekly Unemployment Claims
    • US Industrial Production (M/M)
  • Friday, November 17:
    • Canada Consumer Price Index (M/M)
    • Canada Retail Sales (M/M)
    • US Building Permits and Housing Starts

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