Kiwi Crosses Point Towards Further Weakness Ahead

NZD crosses are falling in tandem which suggests broader weakness awaits.


NZD/USD remains in a clear downtrend, and the retracement from the 0.6269 low appears to have had its day. The correction failed to retest the 38.2% Fibonacci level and, after a few days of consolidation, printed a bearish pinbar which was also a bearish outside day. Bearish momentum is clearly back with prices back beneath the 2016 low. The bias is for a re-test of 0.6294 and break lower, whist 0.6451 holds as resistance.


NZD/JPY is sensitive to risk appetite, although it may have topped without risk-off being required. For example, USD/JPY and AUD/JPY are holding up well (considering yesterday’s explosive move on oil markets) and with NZD/JPY suggesting a swing-high is in place, bears may want to keep an eye on this in case risk appetite sours.

  • A bearish pinbar failed to see prices close above January’s flash-crash on Thursday, and Friday saw a break beneath its low to warn of a near-term top.
  • Bearish momentum has taken the cross to a 7-session low. With momentum having reverted to its longer-term bearish trend, we’d consider bearish setups whilst the hammer high (or prior support around 36.75) hold as resistance.
  • Bears could use a break of the 20-day eMA/38.2% Fibonacci level to assume bearish continuation, using the 50% and 61.8% levels as interim, bearish targets.


GBP/NZD broke out of compression on the back of a stronger British pound on Friday. Over the near-term we’d prefer to see some more consolidation, given that range expansion paused at the upper Keltner band ahead of yesterday’s doji with a slight bearish divergence.

  • A retracement towards 1.9415 would be a welcome development for traders who like to buy dips. Or traders can refer to lower timeframes to trade continuation patterns for smaller moves.
  • The spike high near 1.6979 could provide interim resistance, but if prices trade above here the target becomes the high around 2.000.


NZD/CAD's short swing-trade idea finally appears to be playing out. A bearish wedge has formed during a strong downtrend, and the retracement respected 0.8500 resistance before rolling over yesterday. The underlying analysis remains unchanged; bearish below 0.8500 with potential to target (or even break below) the 2018 low.


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