USD/CHF: NFP could help accelerate dollar rally
Fawad Razaqzada October 6, 2017 6:39 AM
The dollar’s rally could gather momentum if the September monthly jobs report beats expectations later on today. This may well be the case given the fact that many of the leading employment indicators released earlier in the week have been stronger than expected. So, I do think that the consensus forecasts of 82,000 for the headline non-farm payrolls figure may be too pessimistic. But one thing that is not so pessimistic is expectations that Average Hourly Earnings may have risen by 0.3% last month. Thus, there is scope for disappointment on this front. Still, I can’t help but feel the jobs report will be overall positive. For that reason, I am leaning more towards a dollar rally than a slump this afternoon.
USD/CHF could benefit from US-Swiss rate disparity
Pairing the dollar against her rivals, I think the USD/CHF may be an interesting pair to watch for a potentially big breakout. Unlike the Federal Reserve, which has turned decisively hawkish now, the Swiss National Bank is still among the most dovish of central banks out there. This is due to the lack of inflation and anaemic economic growth in Switzerland, owing, among other things, to a strong Swiss franc. To help devalue its currency, the SNB is willing to keep its monetary policy stance extremely loose and intervene in the FX markets if necessary. Consequently, the disparity between US and Swiss monetary policy stances are likely to grow larger.
In theory, the USD/CHF should rise over time as investors move their funds from low-yielding Swiss assets, to higher yielding US investment vehicles. In reality, though, it may not be as simple as that, and timing this potential rally could be very difficult. The thing with the Swiss franc is that it is considered to be a safe haven currency. When you-know-what hits the fan, the franc tends to rise sharply. The way US markets have been rallying over the past several days clearly suggest it is risk on at the moment, so safer assets are not very appealing at the moment. BUT if the markets soon go in correction mode then that could boost the appetite for safe haven assets again.
USD/CHF price action bullish – for now
Taking everything into consideration, I still do believe the USD/CHF will be heading higher over time, but from a trading point of view one has to have a very short-term view on the direction of prices: from one level to the next. The next potential resistance level on the USD/CHF is at 0.9850, old support. The next big level beyond here is parity, which comes in just above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level against last year’s high. On the downside, the key short-term support level to watch is at 0.9770, which was formerly resistance prior to this week’s breakout. But any move below the most recent low at 0.9710 would be deemed bearish. Unless that happens, the path of least resistance is clearly to the upside for now.
Source: eSignal and FOREX.com.
Disclaimer: The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex and commodity futures, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to Forex.com or GAIN Capital refer to GAIN Capital Holdings Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.