Top Story

Trudeau Survives, USD/CAD Bears Still in Control

It’s (still) the economy, stupid.

In last night’s federal election, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau fought off a stout challenge from Conservative candidate Andrew Scheer to win his second term, with the generally strong Canadian economy playing a heavy role in supporting the incumbent. As we noted in last week’s election preview report, the economy performed admirably under Trudeau’s first term, with unemployment hitting a 40+ year low, GDP growing at among the highest rates for a developed country, and the Canadian stock market providing strong returns.

While Trudeau was ultimately victorious, he didn’t emerge unscathed. His Liberal party actually lost the popular vote, as well as its Parliamentary majority, and will therefore have to form coalitions to legislate, with the pro-labor New Democratic Party (NDP) emerging as the most likely partner. There’s no doubt that Trudeau’s “mandate” has been weakened, but he has nonetheless vowed to pursue a left-leaning agenda focusing on social issues, deficit spending to address inequality, and aggressive environmental reforms.

Market Reaction

A narrow Liberal victory was the market’s expected scenario, albeit with a heavy dose of uncertainty, so the reaction in the loonie and Canada’s stock market has been relatively subdued so far. Looking ahead, Trudeau’s agenda is likely to lead to further deficit spending to support social, inequality, and environmental reforms.

That said, the country has had a relatively balanced budget in recent years, with its government deficit running at less than 1% of GDP (by contrast, the US’s deficit was last clocked at nearly 4% of GDP and has been rising in each of the last four years); put another way, Canada’s budget could afford a dose of deficit spending, and it may serve to insulate the economy and stock market from external shocks including falling oil prices or declining international trade.

After falling nearly 300 pips from peak to trough over the last two weeks, USD/CAD is seeing a slight bounce at the start of today’s North American session. As it stands, the RSI indicator is confirming last week’s breakdown in price and the MACD is signaling strong bearish momentum, trending lower below both its signal line and the “0” level. Moving forward, the technical bias in the pair remains bearish as long as rates hold below previous-support-turned-resistance at 1.3135, with potential for a move down toward the year-to-date low at 1.3015 in time.

Source: Trading View, FOREX.com


Disclaimer: The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex and commodity futures, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to Forex.com or GAIN Capital refer to GAIN Capital Holdings Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.