Two trades to watch: EUR/USD, WTI oil

EUR/USD looks to central bank speaker, German sentiment data & US PPI. Oil eyes inventory data.


EUR/USD looks to central bank speak, German ZEW sentiment & US PPI

The EUR/USD is extending gains for a third straight session on Tuesday on US Dollar weakness.

Uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s next move plus anxiety surrounding a possible reshuffle at the Fed is dragging on USD.

EUR is advancing after data revealed that investor sentiment rebounded after falling to a six-month low in October.

German ZEW economic sentiment data & US PPI inflation will be in focus, in addition to speeches from both ECB’s Lagarde and Fed Chair Powell.

Learn more about the Euro

Where next for EUR/USD?

EUR/USD continues to trade below its 50 & 200 and its falling trendline support. More recently it is extending its recovery from 1.1513, and the RSI is approaching neutral.

It would take a move over 1.1616 the weekly high to expose the 50 sma and falling trendline resistance of 1.1655. A move above 1.1695 the October high could see the buyers gain traction.

On the flip side, a move below 1.1523 the October low and 1.1513 the November low could open the door to 1.15 and fresh yearly lows.


EURUSD chart

Oil looks to API inventory data

WTI rises for a 4th straight session, as supply versus demand continues to favour oil.

OPEC decided against raising output in the latest meeting, instead sticking with the 400k output agreed in July, despite world leaders including Biden calling for additional output.

The Biden administration is looking at ways to increase supply and lower prices, for example releasing strategic reserves in order to lower prices

Meanwhile the likes of Saudi Aramco has lifted its official selling price of oil highlighting tightness in the market and the passage o the US infrastructure bill is likely to underpin demand.

API inventory data is due later today.

Where next for WTI oil?

WTI oil fell out of its multi-week ascending trendline last week, falling below its 20 sma. After finding support at 77.70 the price rebounded retaking 80.00 round number.

Any meaningful recovery must retake 82.00 the 20 sma and 83.50 to re-enter the rising channel.

Meanwhile rejection at the 20 sma could see the price fall back towards 77.70 the November low exposing the 50 sma and July high of 64.50.


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