USD/CAD still in rising trend ahead of key Canadian inflation data
James Chen, CMT November 16, 2017 12:56 PM
Amid another relatively light week of economic data, Canada releases its Consumer Price Index inflation data on Friday morning, and expectations are not high. After missing forecasts for the past two months, the monthly CPI for October is expected to come in at +0.1%. In the run-up to this important data release, the Canadian dollar has continued to be pressured, as it generally has been for the past two months. This pressure has helped contribute to a USD/CAD uptrend that has been in place since the early-September 1.2060 low.
Last month, the Bank of Canada held interest rates steady, as widely expected, after previously raising rates back-to-back over the summer. But the central bank also issued a dovish statement that focused on caution amid uncertainties. These uncertainties included the NAFTA renegotiation, lagging wage growth in the labor market, and lower projections for export growth, housing, and consumption.
Also last month, Canadian GDP figures for August were released, which came out negative for the first time this year at -0.1%, missing forecasts of +0.1%. Combined with recent weakness in retail sales and inflation data, economic growth worries have continued to plague the Canadian dollar.
Though the US dollar took a dive earlier this week, due in part to concerns over delays in US tax reform, USD/CAD has remained supported and actually rose for the week thus far on Canadian dollar weakness. This week has also seen a continued sharp pullback in crude oil prices, which has helped to exacerbate pressure on the Canadian dollar.
From a technical perspective, USD/CAD is following a well-established uptrend support line extending back to the noted early-September 1.2060 low. This two-month uptrend has been a partial correction (nearly 50%) of the extensive May-September downtrend. With any continuation of the current bullish trend, the next major upside targets are at the late-October 1.2915-area highs followed further to the upside by the key 1.3000 psychological resistance level.
Disclaimer: The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex and commodity futures, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to Forex.com or GAIN Capital refer to GAIN Capital Holdings Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.