EUR/USD: “World Cup Week” for Economic Data

Matt Weller
By :  ,  Head of Market Research

The euro is the strongest major currency so far in World Cup kickoff week, perhaps reflecting the fact that three of the four biggest favorites for the tournament hail from the Eurozone. More likely though, EUR/USD traders are keying in on a week chock full of key economic developments to help shape trade in the world’s most widely-traded currency pair:

  • Tuesday: German ZEW Survey (9:00 GMT) & US CPI (12:30 GMT). The headlines out of the Trump-Kim Nuclear Summit could also have an impact on all markets.
  • Wednesday: US PPI (12:30 GMT) & FOMC Interest Rate Decision/Statement/Press Conference (18:00-19:30 GMT)
  • Thursday: ECB Meeting/Press Conference (11:45- 13:30 GMT) & US Retail Sales (12:30 GMT)
  • Friday: Eurozone Final CPI (9:00 GMT) & US Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization (13:15 GMT)

As readers can easily surmise, fundamental developments will have a major bearing on how EUR/USD trades this week, but we also wanted to set the technical scene and identify the key levels to watch. As the daily chart below shows, EUR/USD shed nearly 1,000 pips in a straight down move from mid-April to late May before finding a floor at previous support near 1.1550 and staging a recovery over the last two weeks.

As the week opens, the pair has established a near-term range. Support sits down at Friday’s low (and the December low) near 1.1725, while resistance looms at the confluence of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the recent drop and previous resistance around 1.1850.

It’s hard to handicap how all this week’s diverse economic and geopolitical event risks will pan out, but technically speaking, a break above 1.1855 could open the door for a rally toward 1.1962 (the 50% Fibonacci retracement) or 1.20 (key psychological resistance) next, whereas a break below 1.1725 support would suggest that the recent downtrend could be resuming for a retest of the lows near 1.1550 in time.

Regardless of what this week brings, EUR/USD traders must remain nimble with the headlines coming hot and heavy!

Source: FOREX.com, TradingView


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