Yet whilst these measures are slowing the spread of coronavirus, they are hitting the UK economy hard. Predictions, yesterday from the OBR made for grim reading. The OBR warned that the UK economy could shrink by 13% in 2020, with a 35% drop in GDP from April – June alone. Unemployment could quickly more than double to 10%.
Brexit is back in focus today with negotiators set to discuss a timetable for talks. Traders will ideally want to see a conversation on the Brexit transition period being extended. Otherwise GBP could find itself back under pressure before its recovery has really taken off.
USD is pushing higher amid expectations of early economic restoration after President Trump rekindled optimism that some states of the US could reopen for business on May 1st and some could even reopen before then.
So far US dollar traders have Attention will turn to US retail sales. Analysts are expecting retail sales to plunge -8% month on month in March, the lowest level on record, as the coronavirus lock down kicked in and sent consumption levels tumbling. With unemployment in the US soaring the rebound in retail sales could be hampered.
Levels to watch
GBPUSD has advanced convincingly from 19th March low of $1.1410 to its 5-week high of $1.2647 yesterday.
Immediate trendline support is being tested at the time of writing. A breakthrough this level at $1.2575 could see more bears pile in and the price test strong support at $1.2485.
Should the trend line support hold, the price could push higher to test yesterday’s peak of $1.2647 prior to $1.2850 (high 12th March).