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US Dollar retreats further ahead of US CPI

Barring a very low print, today’s CPI report is unlikely to significantly impact expectations around Fed tightening.

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September 13, 2022 06:47 AM
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Whilst inflation may have peaked, the ‘Nowcast’ seems less certain

We saw some strong moves overnight following signs that inflation may have peaked, but a glance at the Cleveland Fed’s Nowcast places a fly in the ointment.

US CPI recap: A turning point in the inflation debate?

If the “peak inflation” theme gathers steam in the coming weeks, we may look back at today’s inflation reading as a major turning point for the year-to-date market trends.

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August 10, 2022 08:55 AM

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US CPI preview: Are we past peak inflation?

Headline inflation reading may show price pressures fading while the Fed’s preferred “core” (ex-energy and food) CPI measure shows that underlying inflation is still rising

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August 8, 2022 12:29 PM
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Forex Friday: DXY and USD/CAD in focus

In this week’s edition, we discuss the dollar and its impressive rally and the Canadian dollar.

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US dollar surges as US short-term yields hit 22-month highs

It’s clear that investors are more confident than ever that the Federal Reserve will seek to “normalize” monetary policy in 2022, paving the way for US dollar strength

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January 3, 2022 12:30 PM
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NFP early insight: COVID waning, employees’ negotiating power waxing?

The latest data on the pandemic shows US cases declining sharply after peaking in the middle of September, suggesting that travel-sensitive industries may flip back into growth mode sooner rather than later...

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October 4, 2021 12:46 PM

USA! USA! USA! Dollar Index and S&P 500 Test Highs as Traders Pile into US Assets

Global capital is flooding into US markets as many traders return from a long holiday weekend.

Dollar Index Probing 10-Month Highs After US Retail Sales

FX traders were casting a wandering eye ahead toward a long holiday weekend this morning, but the US retail sales report pulled their attention back to their monitors.

DXY: Dollar tests key resistance ahead of NFP

The Dollar Index is trading near the top of its 6-month trading range ahead of Friday’s US jobs report.

DXY Could Face Headwinds As We Head Into April

If the US dollar index (DXY) is to follow its seasonal tendency, headwinds could cap upside potential in March before dragging it lower around April.

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March 18, 2019 09:49 PM

Weekly COTS Report - 18th March 2019

A summary of the weekly Commitment of Traders Report (COTS) from CFTC to show market positioning among large speculators.

NFP PREVIEW: DOLLAR INDEX NEAR 2018 HIGH AHEAD OF JOBS DATA

Ahead of Friday’s US non-farm payrolls report the dollar has managed to extend its recovery, thanks mainly to renewed weaknesses in foreign currencies rather than actual strength in the greenback.

Dollar Index Bouncing off 96.00 on Testimony Bonanza Day

Today’s economic calendar is light on traditional economic data, but heavy on high-stakes testimonies with President Trump’s former attorney Michael Cohen, US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell all getting grilled by lawmakers, simultaneously. Michael Cohen’s testimony could have long-term legal ramifications for the President, but comments from the other two policymakers have more near-term significance for traders.

Dollar Index: 20-Month High Near 97.70 in Sight?

With both the US and Canada out on a bank holiday, we’re seeing a relatively quiet session in the FX market. As the chart below shows, the dollar index is falling for its third consecutive day after rally though the first seven days of the month.

DXY: What’s next for the dollar?

Despite the Federal Reserve dropping its hawkish bias, the US dollar has been quite resilient. The closely-watched Dollar Index rose for the eighth consecutive day until yesterday when it was hit by profit-taking, before rebounding again today

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February 13, 2019 06:33 AM

DXY: Dollar Could Extend Losses

If it feels like it has been a quiet-ish start to the week for FX, it is because it has. But this could be the “calm before the storm.”

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January 29, 2019 03:09 AM

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US Dollar: Why 2019 Could Break Bulls’ Hearts

The pendulum of market sentiment swings ever back and forth between fear and greed, euphoria and despondency. Lately, it seems like the time it takes to shift from one to the other is about a year, at least when it comes to the world’s reserve currency.

Look ahead: Could stocks and dollar resume slide?

As we start the first full trading week of 2019 now, the dollar is finding itself under pressure and stock indices are giving back some of the sharp gains made on Friday.

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January 7, 2019 02:53 AM

US Dollar Index Tags a Fresh 2018 High on Mixed Economic Data

Generally speaking, US traders have been focused on the other side of the Atlantic this week, with particular attention on the continued Brexit drama and the mostly as-expected ECB meeting. With those situations (at least temporarily) behind us, the market’s eye has shifted back stateside in advance of next week’s highly-anticipated Federal Reserve meeting.

Preview of Fed’s December rate decision

The Federal Reserve’s last policy meeting for the year will be on December 19-20, when the FOMC is most likely to vote for another 25-basis point rate increase.

Dollar Index Holding Its Bullish Channel, But Causes for Concern Pile Up

As we anticipated yesterday (see here and here), the risk-on rally in the wake of this weekend’s “trade war truce” between the US and China has sputtered out relatively quickly. With US officials sending mixed messages about the content of the agreement and Chinese leaders maintaining radio silence, investors are increasingly concerned that a broad, long-term agreement within the next 90 days is a big ask.

Dollar extends rally but its days as King of FX could be numbered

The Fed is still one of the most hawkish central banks out there and this is reflected in the dollar rallying. But with the pressure growing from Trump and given the recent fundamental developments, the central bank may well change its tone soon, potentially leading to a dollar sell-off.

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November 27, 2018 07:54 AM