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Fed meeting preview: Dollar Index at 1-month lows ahead of tight decision

We agree with the market’s expectation that Jerome Powell and company are likely to deliver a 25bps interest rate hike this month, though we certainly wouldn’t be shocked to see the central bank hold fire for now.

Research

US retail sales recap: Recession, Reschmession

The previously omnipresent calls for a 2023 recession in the US are looking more and more wrong by the day.

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Dollar strengthens ahead of US retail sales

Investors are pricing in a higher terminal interest rate in the US

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Research

Markets in holding pattern as traders eye US CPI

…once again the focus is going to be on inflation and central bank speech.

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February 13, 2023 08:35 AM
Research

Will Powell disappoint dollar die-hards?

Futures markets now tally with many Fed policymakers for the first time this year, accepting the Fed's "terminal rate" will be above 5%...

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February 7, 2023 08:57 AM
Research

Dollar extends rally

That surprise 500-thousand-plus job gains we saw on Friday means the market may gravitate towards “higher for longer” narrative

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February 6, 2023 07:00 AM
Research

Dollar could rebound as DXY tests major support

The EUR/USD, GBP/USD and commodity dollars could all fall back if sentiment towards risk remains subdued.

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December 21, 2022 06:29 AM
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Technical Tuesday: S&P 500, Dollar Index, GBP/USD and Gold

In this week’s edition, we are getting technical on the Dollar Index, S&P 500, GBP/USD and gold

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Dollar rebounds on China, faces busy week

Are we about to see a more profound dollar recovery?

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November 28, 2022 11:56 AM
Research

Dollar index clings onto bull trend ahead of CPI

CPI is way too high for the Fed to ease off the gas.

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November 10, 2022 07:10 AM
Research

FOMC meeting preview: Fed expected to hike 75bps, but is the pivot imminent?

The stakes couldn’t be higher for this month’s FOMC meeting - see why!

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November 1, 2022 10:30 AM
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US Dollar retreats further ahead of US CPI

Barring a very low print, today’s CPI report is unlikely to significantly impact expectations around Fed tightening.

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September 13, 2022 06:47 AM
Research

Whilst inflation may have peaked, the ‘Nowcast’ seems less certain

We saw some strong moves overnight following signs that inflation may have peaked, but a glance at the Cleveland Fed’s Nowcast places a fly in the ointment.

US CPI recap: A turning point in the inflation debate?

If the “peak inflation” theme gathers steam in the coming weeks, we may look back at today’s inflation reading as a major turning point for the year-to-date market trends.

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August 10, 2022 08:55 AM
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US CPI preview: Are we past peak inflation?

Headline inflation reading may show price pressures fading while the Fed’s preferred “core” (ex-energy and food) CPI measure shows that underlying inflation is still rising

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August 8, 2022 12:29 PM
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Forex Friday: DXY and USD/CAD in focus

In this week’s edition, we discuss the dollar and its impressive rally and the Canadian dollar.

Rocket taking off on a bright day

US dollar surges as US short-term yields hit 22-month highs

It’s clear that investors are more confident than ever that the Federal Reserve will seek to “normalize” monetary policy in 2022, paving the way for US dollar strength

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January 3, 2022 12:30 PM

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NFP early insight: COVID waning, employees’ negotiating power waxing?

The latest data on the pandemic shows US cases declining sharply after peaking in the middle of September, suggesting that travel-sensitive industries may flip back into growth mode sooner rather than later...

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October 4, 2021 12:46 PM

USA! USA! USA! Dollar Index and S&P 500 Test Highs as Traders Pile into US Assets

Global capital is flooding into US markets as many traders return from a long holiday weekend.

Dollar Index Probing 10-Month Highs After US Retail Sales

FX traders were casting a wandering eye ahead toward a long holiday weekend this morning, but the US retail sales report pulled their attention back to their monitors.

DXY: Dollar tests key resistance ahead of NFP

The Dollar Index is trading near the top of its 6-month trading range ahead of Friday’s US jobs report.

DXY Could Face Headwinds As We Head Into April

If the US dollar index (DXY) is to follow its seasonal tendency, headwinds could cap upside potential in March before dragging it lower around April.

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March 18, 2019 09:49 PM

Weekly COTS Report - 18th March 2019

A summary of the weekly Commitment of Traders Report (COTS) from CFTC to show market positioning among large speculators.