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Canadian CPI lower than expected. Are the BOC rate hikes working?

CPI for August out of Canada was lower than expected. As a result, EUR/CAD is trading higher on the day.

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September 20, 2022 10:36 AM

Yes, inflation may have peak but it “remains far too high”

Sometimes the obvious needs to be said. And that is exactly what the BOC’s deputy governor said in his op-ed by stating inflation “remains far too high”.


Early signs of (dis)inflation continue to appear

Whilst inflation has been hard to ignore, we are now seeing signs that the cooling of inflationary forces are finally showing up in some consumer prices.

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The rouble shows early signs of stabilising

The significance of OPEC’s meeting has diminished somewhat with Russia stealing headlines, and four key members intending to stick to raising output by 400k bpd.

Bank of Canada preview: Is the BOC ready to hike rates?

At its last meeting in December, the BOC said it doesn't see a rate hike until mid-2022. However, some seem to think it will hike at this meeting!

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January 24, 2022 04:56 PM

Bank of Canada ends Quantitative Easing Program

The Bank of Canada surprised markets today by reducing its bond purchase program from $C2 billion per week to C$0

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October 27, 2021 11:56 AM

EUR/CAD poised for a rally?

Despite the data out just a few moments ago that Canadian manufacturing sales rebounded by a good 1.0% (vs. 0.4% expected), the medium-term lower highs and the lack of a clear short-term trend, we think this FX pair is looking bullish

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March 15, 2019 04:26 AM

BOC rate hike looms but how will CAD react?

The Bank of Canada is due to increase interest rates to 1.75% at the conclusion of its meeting today. This will be an easy decision thanks to an improving economy and the fact that Canada finally secured a trade deal (USMCA) with its two southern neighbours.

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October 24, 2018 03:30 AM

EUR/CAD breaks out ahead of Canada jobs, G7 and ECB meetings

The single currency has performed particularly well against the Canadian dollar, which has been undermined by continued uncertainty over NAFTA negotiations and recent volatility in oil prices.

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June 7, 2018 08:24 AM

EUR/CAD could extend drop with Canadian data in focus

Today is fairly light on the data front. The only notable exception will be Canadian inflation and retail sales figures, which will be released later at 13:30 BST (08:30 EDT).

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May 18, 2018 02:09 AM

Chart to watch: EUR/CAD

The CAD’s drop was more pronounced against the euro, with the latter managing to catch a bid earlier today. Consequently, the EUR/CAD managed to hold its own above the 200-day moving average and long-term trend line around the 1.5200 area for the second consecutive day.

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May 11, 2018 07:36 AM

EUR/CAD in focus amid ECB, US tariff plans and Canadian jobs data

After the ECB’s dovish press conference the euro fell across the board, even against the Canadian dollar.

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March 8, 2018 07:53 AM

EUR/CAD: Eurozone CPI confirmed at 1.3% but how will Canada fare?

While the Bank of Canada has moved ahead of the European Central Bank in raising interest rates first, this hasn’t stopped the EUR/CAD from rising...

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February 23, 2018 01:57 AM

EUR/CAD could be in for a sizable move as it tests key level

The EUR/CAD is an interesting FX pair to watch as it is currently testing a key technical area in the 100-pip range between 1.4735 and 1.4835

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January 9, 2018 08:15 AM

China imports rise boosts commodities while ECB QE report hits euro

The euro has eased off across the board on a Bloomberg report that the European Central Bank may reduce its bond purchases to €30 billion per month from January and simultaneously extend the duration of the QE programme by another nine months to at least September 2018.

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October 13, 2017 03:48 AM

Euro rally takes a breather as focus turns to Canadian CPI

While the euro surged against the dollar, its gains were relatively mild against other stronger major currencies. One such currency is the Canadian dollar, which has been on a tear ever since the Bank of Canada first turned hawkish before raising interest rates. The Canadian dollar will be in focus again today due to the release of Canadian inflation and retail sales data.

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July 21, 2017 03:54 AM

EUR/CAD: Eurozone PMIs beat, Canadian CPI next

The euro finds itself higher across the board, including against the Canadian dollar ahead of the nation's inflation data...

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March 24, 2017 04:10 AM

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EUR/CAD surges as oil drops; Trump, BOC in focus

The sharp drop in the price of oil has weighed heavily on the oil-linked Canadian dollar today. The USD/CAD has surged above 1.3200 handle and was heading towards 1.3280 resistance at the time of this writing. The USD/CAD’s rally has come despite an otherwise down day for the US dollar, which has been hurt by soft data and anxiety ahead of President Donald Trump’s speech tonight.

EUR/CAD: one to watch

Despite oil’s massive rally on the back of the OPEC news, the Canadian dollar, which tends to correlate strongly with oil prices, has hardly moved against its major rivals. Indeed, the USD/CAD momentarily turned positive. The EUR/CAD is still down on the day, but it too has held its own relatively well. One has to wonder, if such an oil-bullish move was unable to underpin the CAD, what will?

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November 30, 2016 08:53 AM

Canadian dollar in focus as traders eye CPI, retail sales and oil prices

The Canadian dollar has been among the weakest of currencies in G10 in recent days. The sell-off has been sparked by the Bank of Canada’s Governor, Stephen Poloz, who on Wednesday said the central bank “actively” discussed the prospects of adding more stimulus into the economy, but in the end decided to keep rates unchanged. Today’s key economic data, as it happens, is from Canada.

EUR/CAD: one to watch

Today’s biggest surprise was perhaps the rallying stock markets with the UK’s FTSE 100 climbing by a good 3.5%, led by stocks that had suffered heavily in the immediate aftermath of the Brexit vote. The FTSE was no doubt supported also by the rallying prices of commodities which helped the precious metals miner Fresnillo climb nearly 10% to top the index. Crude oil also jumped following the publication of the latest US stockpiles report, which showed a sharper than expected 4 million drawdown for the week ending June 24. This added further fuel to the stock market rally, but as of yet it hasn’t provided significant support for the Canadian dollar. The latter was flat against the euro, but did manage to rise slightly against the US dollar which fell not only because of today’s “risk-on” trade but also because of poor economic data in the US as pending home sales dropped some 3.7% month over month in May, which was also the first drop on a year-over-year basis since August 2014.

Forget EUR/USD, focus on EUR/CAD

Not a lot was expected to come out of today’s ECB meeting and press conference, and so it proved. The euro huffed and puffed during Mario Draghi’s press conference but ultimately fell against the US dollar, while the latter bounced back presumably on the back of the weekly jobless claims figure (which dropped to the lowest level since 1973) for today’s other US data releases were, again, poor. The slightly stronger dollar weighed on buck-denominated commodities which fell across the board after rallying earlier in the day. The resulting weakness in oil pressurised the Canadian dollar, causing the EUR/CAD to rally.

EUR/CAD: triple top reversal or breakout? Crude should provide the answer

Crude’s plunge to $30 has been the main reason why the Canadian dollar has been dropping to a fresh decade lows against the US dollar, with the black gold being Canada’s number one commodity export. Today, crude prices swung wildly to the positive territory, probably due to short-covering near the $30 handle, before both contracts fell back viciously to trade only just shy of this technically-important area as we went to press.