FOMC

AUD/USD may track the negative slope in the 200-Day SMA (0.6759) as a bear flag takes shape.

Today’s UK inflation print could be the difference between a final 25bp hike from the BOE tomorrow, or a pause. Then our attention turns to the FOMC meeting.

Fed fund futures (FFF) suggest an 87.1% chance of 25bp hike for today's FOMC meeting - and I agree with that part. But what about the rest of the curve?

The price of gold may face a larger pullback as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls back from overbought territory.

We agree with the market’s expectation that Jerome Powell and company are likely to deliver a 25bps interest rate hike this month, though we certainly wouldn’t be shocked to see the central bank hold fire for now.

EUR/USD may stage a larger rebound as it continues to hold above the January low (1.0483).

FOMC meetings are some of the most important economic policy events. The meetings provide opportunities for both day traders and longer-term traders. Learn about the impacts of FOMC meetings and how to trade them.

Whilst the Fed effectively confirmed two more 25bp hikes to are to follow, Fed fund futures remain unconvinced and are pricing in a single hike to take rates to 5%.

The big question on everyone's mind is, will Fed Chairman Powell be able to pull off another successful performance?

The December Core PCE print was in-line with expectations. Therefore, markets remain comfortable with pricing in the 98% chance of a 25bps rate hike on Wednesday.

If markets don’t care about what Powell has to say about interest rates, the next place to turn its attention to may be growth and the outlook for a possible recession in 2023!

The Fed Chairman isn’t yet willing to entertain a pause in rate hikes or the prospect of rate cuts in 2023, though he continues to emphasize the central bank’s data dependence...

Stocks are edging lower as investors look ahead to the Federal Reserve rate decision and attempt to gauge whether inflation has cooled sufficiently for the US central bank to adopt a more dovish stance.

Implied volatility for FX majors has risen ahead of today’s FOMC meeting - and most notably GBP as it also has UK CPI to contend with within the hour.

While there seems to be a clear consensus that the central bank should slow its pace of rate hikes, the ultimate question for this week’s meeting will revolve around the so-called “terminal rate,” or how high the Fed will have to push interest rates next year before pausing the rate hike cycle.

Although it had an immediate impact on the markets once it was released, the PPI print alone shouldn’t have too much influence on the FOMC decision.

The risk to the CPI data is that it is much lower than expected.