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Currency pair of the week: GBP/USD
Will the new budget from PM Liz Truss “break the economy” or will it help everyday citizens as she says it will?
FOMC as expected; markets extremely volatile during presser.
As for other central bank meetings: within the next 20 hours markets will hear from the BOJ, SNB, Norges Bank, BOE, and SARB.
FOMC meeting instant reaction: Not even a whisper of a pivot yet
Even looking out just until the end of this year, Fed members are projecting another 125bps of rate hikes...
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Implied volatility spikes, BOJ gets active ahead of FOMC
Rising yields ahead of the FOMC meeting has seen the BOJ announce bond purchases, and implied volatility has risen notably for the next 24-hours.
FOMC meeting preview: 100bps unlikely, but longer rate hike path in play
In our view, the possibility of a 100bps rate hike is overblown...but that doesn't mean the Fed won't come off as hawkish.
Could tomorrow's Michigan Consumer Sentiment be the key for the FOMC’s decision next week?
If the inflation components are higher than expected, watch for a possible tape-bomb from the Wall Street Journal that the Fed is “more likely” to hike 100bps.
Instant insight: Powell “forceful” in fighting inflation at Jackson Hole
Mr. Powell clearly hit a hawkish note, emphasizing the importance of leaving policy tight until inflation was thoroughly licked.
US Advanced GDP for Q2 is negative; Is the US in a recession?
The textbook definition of a recession is 2 quarters of negative growth. However, many economists don’t abide by that rule.
Gold holds post-FOMC bounce ahead of GDP
Expectations that inflation will soon peak and that the economy will deteriorate further points to a contractionary monetary policy stance from the Fed in 2023
Pending Home Sales rounds out weaker housing data in US
If markets see the Fed cutting back the pace of rate hikes, we may see 10-year yields lower, and as a result, housing data may pick up again.
Silver: Can precious metals rebound despite Fed tightening?
We are seeing some mild dollar selling ahead of FOMC, which is boosting the appeal of precious metals, yen and franc
FOMC meeting preview: Traders looking for 75bps, Powell’s presser key
If the FOMC does, in fact, opt for a 75bps interest rate hike, Fed Chairman Powell’s accompanying press conference will likely have a bigger market impact than the decision itself...
FOMC recap: Fed hikes rates 75 bps, dot plots show much more to come!
The Fed statement said that it is “strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2% objective” and that it ”expects the labor market to remain strong”.
EUR/USD in focus as ECB holds ad-hoc meeting ahead of FOMC
Euro rebounds as ECB tries to address fragmentation risks, ahead of a likely 75 basis point hike from the Fed
FOMC Preview: Could the Committee hike 75bps?
With inflation continuing to increase and the Unemployment Rate at its lowest since February 2020, is it time for the Fed to surprise the markets and hike rates by 75bps?
FOMC minutes confirm 50bps hikes in June and July (USD/JPY, GBP/USD)
Whilst the FOMC minutes helped lift the dollar and Wall Street on the day, but we’re not convinced the dollar low is in just yet.
Powell said it- Not considering 75bps rate hike! Do markets believe him?
Based on today’s price action so far, it doesn’t seem like the markets are taking Powell seriously.
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Fed reality check prompts market reversals, USD lower
Whilst the Fed raised interest rates by their most aggressive pace in 22-years of 50-bps, they may have poured cold water on the prospects of a 75-bps hike further out.
FOMC meeting preview: 50bps a “done deal” but balance sheet update will be key
Of course, with a 50bps move already fully discounted, the Fed’s interest rate decision is unlikely to be a market mover by itself...see what traders will be focused on instead!
Forex Friday: Dollar Bulls, Pound Bears Exhausted
In this week’s edition, we discuss the dollar and its impressive rally, and ponder over the pounded pound
Dollar hits near 2-year high post Fed, USD/CAD mean reverts
The FOMC minutes reiterated the Fed’s extremely hawkish stance which saw the US dollar dominate the session.
FOMC hikes rates 25bps as expected, but statement says more hikes to come!
The FOMC has a plan to raise rates steadily over the course of the year and run off the balance sheet.
US open: Stocks rise as Russia's stance softens, Fed in focus
US stocks are pointing to a strong open as hope of a truce in Ukraine grow, as Beijing pledges more support to the economy and ahead of the Fed rate decision.