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European Open: Keep an eye on Germany's Regional CPI’s
The first (of several) regional inflation reports for Germany came in soft this morning, and that could be a lead for Germany’s broad CPI released at lunch today.
German Wholesale prices on the upside
German September Wholesale prices were released at +1.8%, vs -1.6% on year expected.
Weak German Retail Sales
Earlier this morning, July German Retail Sales were released at -0.9% on month, worse than +0.5% expected.
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Single digit German GDP fall
The German Federal Statistical Office has reported final readings of Q2 GDP at -9.7% on quarter, above -10.1% expected.
German July PPI above expectations
Earlier this morning, German July PPI was released at +0.2%, above +0.1% expected.
German Balance of Trade stronger than expected
This morning, June German Balance of Trade was released at EUR 15.6 billion surplus, much higher than EUR 1.4 billion surplus expected.
German Consumer Confidence above expectations
The August German Consumer Confidence was released above the expectations.
German PPI below expectations
The June German Producer Price Index was released at +0.0% on month, below +0.2% expected.
Much higher German Wholesale prices
June German Wholesale price index was released at +0.6% on month, much higher than -0.6% expected.
Germany between hope and fear
In Germany, the lockdown easing is under way but Confidence is falling.
Market Brief: Another positive month in the bag, why spoil it?
European shares are trying to shake off end-of-month jitters
Market Brief: It’s still mostly about trade; meanwhile, in Brazil…
Reduced news flow and looming near-end, confirm that ‘trade’ remains the key driver
Market Brief: The latest Kudlow bounce
Stocks are buying the White House’s latest blast of trade optimism, though bond markets are reserving judgement
Market Brief: If in doubt, fade the rips
There’s been lots of euphoria this week. Also lashings of doubt
Market Brief: Manic Monday feared post Super Saturday
Investors are avoiding major moves ahead of Saturday’s momentous risk event
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Finally, Something to get Excited about in the Eurozone!
German ZEW Economic Sentiment for October better than expected
Auto Tariff Delay Could Seal A Corrective Low For DAX
The announcement that Trump plans to delay EU auto tariffs provided the DAX quite the tailwind yesterday. Technically, we suspect it could extend its bounce from here.
Bad day for global data
Today’s latest macro pointers from some of the major developed economies have disappointed expectations – quite badly, in some cases – fuelling fears over an economic slowdown.
EUR/USD: 3 Storylines Driving Trade at the Start of the Week
Risk assets are bouncing back after a rough holiday-shortened week in the US, with US stock indices gaining around 1% at the open to trade back at Wednesday’s levels. As my colleague Fawad Razaqzada chronicled earlier this morning, weekend progress on a Brexit deal has stabilized sentiment, though there are still plenty of hurdles to clear before a smooth transition is likely. In the FX market, last week’s “safe haven” winners (the JPY, CHF, and USD) are the three weakest major currencies so far today.
EUR/USD down after German election, but not yet out
Although Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party won the most votes (at 33%) on Sunday’s German federal election, as widely expected, the margin of victory was a massive disappointment for both Merkel and her conservative party’s supporters. From the last federal election in 2013 to Sunday’s tally, the CDU lost around 8.5% of the vote share. This significant loss of support was not transferred primarily to Martin Shulz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD), as might have been expected, but instead to the anti-immigration and anti-EU party, Alternative for Germany (AfD). AfD garnered 13% of votes – 7.9% more of the vote share than it had in 2013, placing the far-right party in a comfortable third place after the CDU and SPD. While the CDU has secured 246 seats in the Bundestag, the AfD now has a very substantial 94 seats where before it had none. This is the first time that a far-right party has been represented in German parliament since World War II. Therefore, while Merkel has certainly secured a fourth term as Chancellor, the prominent rise of the AfD has created a serious potential threat to the European Union and euro.