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USD/JPY hits a fresh 9-month high ahead of Friday’s BOJ meeting
The Fed delivered their hawkish hold, sending the US-JP 2-year yield differential to fresh cycle highs ahead of tomorrow’s BOJ meeting. And whilst the risk of verbal intervention remains from the MOF/BOJ, they may not actually intervene if the trend remains orderly. And price action on the USD/JPY daily chart suggests that it is.
Nasdaq 100 appears buoyant ahead of a key US inflation report
We are now in the second full trading week of September, a month which has averaged negative returns for the Nasdaq 100. However, the market looks buoyant ahead of a key US inflation report, which has the potential to extend the Nasdaq's gains just as easily as it could send it sharply lower when the data arrives.
Can the S&P 500 move lower coax bears from the sideline?
The S&P 500 is on track for its third consecutive week lower. And that leaves us to wonder if some of the bears that were squeezed out over the rally over the past couple of months are now set to return to the market.
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AUD/USD, China A50 higher on China’s deflation (but will CPI keep falling?)
Whilst China’s deflating CPI number brings hopes of weaker inflation elsewhere, a quick at the chart reminds us that inflation spends very little time in negative territory.
USD/JPY whipsaws after the BOJ adjusts its yield curve control (kind of)
USD/JPY hit a bout of volatility when the BOJ announced that they will aim to control the ‘flexibility’ of its 10-year target rate of +/- 0.5%, and allow the yields to rise above the ceiling by a “certain degree”. This is not a widening of the band as such, but a more relaxed approached to controlling the bond yield around it.
Dow Jones, ASX 200, Hang Seng Analysis: Key level to watch
Despite its YUTD high, the Dow Jones remains a preferred short during bouts of risk-off. The ASX 200 appears set for a pullback and the Hang Seng shows the potential for a rally.
Dow Jones Outlook: Stocks edge lower after last week's gains
US stocks are set to start the week modestly lower after strong gains last week. Cooler inflation boosted view that the Fed's peak interest rate could be close. Today softer Chinese GDP data is hurting risk sentiment in an otherwise quiet day on the economic calendar. Investors are bracing themselves for more corporate earnings this week from big names such as Tesla, Netflix, Goldman Sachs, IBM and Bank of America.
Nasdaq 100, Apple: July has favoured bulls over the past thirty years
Whilst July can be a time of lower volatility, we note that over the past thirty years both the Nasdaq 100 and Apple have averaged positive returns with a positive win rate for the month.
DAX Analysis: Its record high was ‘short’ lived. Where to next?
The DAX may have reached a record high on Friday, but a knock to sentiment and caution ahead of Jerome Powell’s testimony has seen it pull back to a three-day low.
Nasdaq 100 Analysis: Nvidia (NVDA) to remain king of the Nasdaq?
Nvidia (NVDA) remains the best performer of the Nasdaq with a YTD gain of ~170%, yet a classic technical price signal suggests there could be further gains to follow as the year progresses.
CAD, WTI Analysis: CAD/JPY coils at cycle highs ahead of BOC meeting
Whilst there are some bets that the BOC could hike, we suspect recent data continues to point to another pause with the risk of a slightly hawkish statement. Either way, we remain bullish on CAD pairs overall.
AUD/USD down with China PMIs, but CPI points the wrong way for the RBA
Two contradictory reports wreaked a bit of havoc on AUD/USD today, with hot-CPI gains quickly evaporating upon the release of weak China PMIs.
AUD/USD, ASX 200 analysis: Debt ceiling talks weigh on sentiment
AUD/USD is potentially within 1-2 trading days of testing its YTD low and the ASX 200 is in risk of falling further within its range, as debt ceiling talks weigh on sentiment.
Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 analysis: Why we prefer the Nasdaq over the S&P 500
Debt ceiling talks have been rolled over for another week, but if a resolution is found we expect the Nasdaq to continue outperforming Wall Street given its strong gains this year.
DJI outlook: Getting down with the Dow
Today we look at the Dow Jones which has seen momentum turn swiftly lower, in line with appetite for risk.
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