Interest rates

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FOMC meeting preview: 100bps unlikely, but longer rate hike path in play

In our view, the possibility of a 100bps rate hike is overblown...but that doesn't mean the Fed won't come off as hawkish.

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September 19, 2022 03:25 PM

ECB hawks out in force ahead of Eurozone CPI; EUR/GBP

Hawkish ECB speakers over the last few days, combined with the lack of BOE speakers, have sent EUR/GBP to its highest level since July 6th.

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August 30, 2022 11:50 AM
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Pending Home Sales rounds out weaker housing data in US

If markets see the Fed cutting back the pace of rate hikes, we may see 10-year yields lower, and as a result, housing data may pick up again.

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July 27, 2022 04:05 PM

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FOMC recap: Fed delivers 75bps, but Powell throws cold water on hawks

On balance, the Fed chief is coming off as relatively dovish...

FOMC meeting preview: Traders looking for 75bps, Powell’s presser key

If the FOMC does, in fact, opt for a 75bps interest rate hike, Fed Chairman Powell’s accompanying press conference will likely have a bigger market impact than the decision itself...

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July 25, 2022 10:46 AM
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US yield curve sees its deepest inversion since 2000: What does it mean for major markets?

If traders don’t have this scenario in their minds, they’re ignoring one of the biggest risk in markets right now...

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July 14, 2022 01:15 PM
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NFP preview: Leading indicators slow while Fed poised to charge ahead

The leading indicators point to a slightly below-expectations reading in this month’s NFP report, with headline job growth potentially coming in somewhere in the 225K-325K range

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Are SNB being ‘franc’ about a potential hike?

Comments from SNB’s president suggest the central bank might be closer to hiking rates sooner than some expect.

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May 19, 2022 10:47 PM

Markets pricing in central bank rate increases over the next year

Traders should watch the change in expectations of interest rates vs current rates.

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May 13, 2022 12:06 PM
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Back from the dead? The revival of the FX carry trade

As inflation rises to multi-decade highs, some central banks are once again raising interest rates aggressively, suggesting that the carry trade could come back from the dead in the coming months.

FOMC meeting recap: Was that “Peak Hawkishness” for the Fed?

Traders may look at today’s press conference as marking “peak hawkishness” for the Fed, at least in the short term...

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FOMC meeting preview: 50bps a “done deal” but balance sheet update will be key

Of course, with a 50bps move already fully discounted, the Fed’s interest rate decision is unlikely to be a market mover by itself...see what traders will be focused on instead!

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How to use the currency carry trade strategy

A carry trade is a trading strategy that involves borrowing a low-yield currency and investing in a high-yielding asset to exploit the interest rate differential. Carry trades are most common in forex trading with traders borrowing the low interest Japanese yen to buy higher interest currencies. Learn what currency pairs work best and how to execute the strategy yourself in our full guide.

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February 23, 2022 09:36 AM
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Could housing be the next shoe to drop?

Are home buyers rushing to buy ahead of a rise in interest rates?

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February 18, 2022 11:09 AM

Forecasting 2022 inflation: Transitory no more?

The ongoing global inflationary pressure stems from two primary causes: Economic stimulus and supply chain disruptions - how will they evolve in 2022?

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Inflation and Banxico: USD/MXN

Inflation data on Tuesday may determine whether the Bank of Mexico hikes rates by 25bps or 50bps on Thursday.

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USD/TRY at all-time highs

If Turkey continues to threaten retaliation against the Kurdish YPG militants or if there is a continued threat that the CBRT will cut rates once again, USD/TRY may continue to put in all-time new highs

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Fed members comment ahead of Powell’s Speech: Tapering is coming

Powell’s speech tomorrow at Jackson Hole may already be priced into the markets

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August 26, 2021 08:01 AM
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Does inflation matter right now? USD/JPY, US 10 Year Yields

The technicals point to a possible lower move in yields and USD/JPY in the short-term, regardless of the outcome

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July 12, 2021 01:07 PM
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USD/JPY higher despite continued weaker than expected US data

Traditionally, weaker than expected US data would send USD/JPY lower, but that is not the case today.

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May 27, 2021 09:55 AM
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US open: Futures resume rise ahead of Fed Quarles, oil inventories

US stocks are set to resume the rise after a brief setback yesterday. The Fed continue to rein in inflation expectations boosting stocks. A light economic calendar leaves Fed speak in focus.

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Recent economic data shows it’s the US consumer vs the Fed

Either the consumer has to cut back expectations of higher inflation or the Fed has to begin to offer signs of tapering monetary policy.

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April 16, 2021 08:12 AM
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Yields and Yen: A negative relationship

This is a relationship worth following!

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March 26, 2021 07:09 AM