Non-farm payrolls

On Tuesday, the ICE U.S. Dollar Index has stabilized after briefing dropping to its weakest level in more than two years, ending up 0.1% on day to 92.31. U.S. ADP private jobs report for August will be today's focus, with an increase of 1 million expected and compared with +167,000 in July.

Despite today's strong report, there are reasons to be concerned about the prospects for the US economy...

The monthly US Non-Farm Payrolls report has a well-earned reputation for creating volatility in global financial markets, but even high-impact data is occasionally a dud.

The Dollar Index is trading near the top of its 6-month trading range ahead of Friday’s US jobs report.

Anyone following the US labor market this year (read: every trader) has been put through a wringer of emotions...

• 20K jobs created vs. 180k expected • Unemployment -0.2% to 3.8% vs. 3.9% expected • Wages 3.4% yoy vs. 3.3% expected • Dec. revised higher from 220k to 227k • Jan. revised higher from 304k to 306k

Ahead of Friday’s US non-farm payrolls report the dollar has managed to extend its recovery, thanks mainly to renewed weaknesses in foreign currencies rather than actual strength in the greenback.

In a different environment, today’s Non-Farm Payrolls report would have led to fireworks, rather than the “wet blanket” market reaction that we’ve seen so far.

Friday’s jobs and wages numbers may turn out to be not so significant in terms of their potential market impact as investors will still be assessing the Fed’s apparent U-turn in its monetary policy stance – unless the data turn out to be significantly strong or significantly weak.

Apart from the ADP private sector payrolls report (Wednesday), there aren’t plenty of other pre-NFP leading indicators to look forward to.

For seemingly the first time in months, today’s US jobs report had at least a little potential to influence the imminent Federal Reserve interest rate decision.

Ahead of the November US non-farm payrolls report, we have seen a massive slide in equity prices and then a decent rebound on Thursday as the indices tested their respective support level.

Much like we saw with the Bank of England meeting getting overshadowed by Brexit developments earlier this week, traditional market-moving economic releases are taking a back seat to geopolitical developments in the US as well.

Ahead of the October US non-farm payrolls report, we have seen a massive slide in the dollar. It was only Wednesday when the Dollar Index briefly breached the August high to climb to its best level since June 27, before dropping sharply a day later on Thursday.

As you might expect from the undeniably “risk-off” tone throughout the month of October, the “safe haven” Japanese yen was last month’s best-performing major currency. The big surprise, however, came from a different safe haven currency; the Swiss franc was the weakest major on the month, edging out the euro.