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USD/CAD rally to be tested by key Bank of Canada decision and Canadian data

An atypically hawkish Bank of Canada raised interest rates back-to-back in July and September, helping to fuel and extend a Canadian dollar rally and USD/CAD downtrend within the third quarter of this year. Starting in early September, however, as the battered US dollar began to rebound from multi-year lows, the Canadian dollar lost ground against the greenback, helping to boost USD/CAD into recovery mode. Over more than a month, USD/CAD has risen in a bullish correction that has been driven in part by higher anticipation of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike by the end of the year.

USD/CAD tentatively breaches critical price level on BoC comments

The Canadian dollar has not performed well against the rebounding and recovering US dollar within the past three weeks. And surging crude oil prices this month have not been able to help the typically energy-linked Canadian dollar from sliding sharply against the greenback. This CAD weakness against the USD in the past few weeks can be readily seen on the daily chart of USD/CAD, which shows the currency pair rising from more than a two-year-low around 1.2060 in early September up to its current position fluctuating above and around the key 1.2400-area price level.

USD/CAD: BOC begets big bearish reversal

Heading into today’s big BOC decision, it felt like USD/CAD bears just needed to get put out of their misery. After all, the Canadian dollar had lost 11% of its value against the US dollar in last three months alone, to say nothing of the larger move from sub-parity levels in USD/CAD less than three years ago. Of course, the proximate cause of the weakness has been the renewed drop in oil prices, Canada’s most important export. The economic impact of the collapse in oil prices cannot be understated: it has impacted nearly every aspect of the Canadian economy, from employment to manufacturing activity to inflation to consumer confidence.

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