Asia FX Handover - A Minor Risk Rally For FX
Matt Simpson May 14, 2019 4:45 AM
- Trump announced he’ll meet with Xi next month and said “we’ll know in 3-4 weeks if China trade deal is to be successful”, which saw a mini-bout of risk-on for FX markets. JPY is today’s weakest major and NZD and AUD are the strongest, allowing NZD/JPY and AUD/JPY to bounce from their lows and place them as today’s biggest gainers.
- On the data front, Australia’s business confidence came in at ‘0’ and April’s read was revised lower to -1, with conditions falling to its lowest level this year at 3. Most importantly, the employment component fell below average for the first time since 2016 ahead of Thursday’s all-important employment set. With employment remaining the stronger economic read, any weakness here will surely increase the odds of RBA cutting.
BOJ’s Kuroda expects rates to stay in place beyond spring 2020, but will consider further easing if price momentum is lost.
- US10Y has found support above 2.4%, index futures point cautiously higher and gold has retreated below $1300 after hitting a 1-month high. USD/CNH has also retraced below resistance after its most bullish session since October. All in these moves appear to be technically driven and too soon to call a turnaround.
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