Asia FX Handover: Sentiment Remains Fragile On Trade


  • Sentiment remained fragile on Monday, with China warning US farmers may lose China market for good. Mexico’s Economy Minister confirmed she’ll be in Washington on Monday, ahead of high stakes trade talks between Mexico and the US this coming week.
  • Index futures were mostly in the red, led lower by the ASX200 and Nikkei 225. Energy and materials stocks were the worst hit. Gold hit a 10-week high and WTI hit fresh lows following its worst week of the year.
  • The US dollar is today’s weakest major, JPY and CHF are the strongest on safe-haven flows. Even AUD/USD broke to a new cycle high ahead of tomorrow’s RBA meeting where expectations are for a 25bps cut. EUR/CHF is trying to break out of range and hit its lowest level since July 2017 mid-Asia. USDCAD is struggling near its highs following a bearish pinbar on Friday.
  • On the data front, Japan’s manufacturing PMI contracted at 49.8 (50.2 prior) and expectations for output turned negative for the first time since November 2012. Firms also reported a slowdown in hiring. Australia’s manufacturing index softened to 52.7 (54.8 prior). Job adverts fell -8.4% in May although the report suggests this is down to the April ‘holiday year’ effect. Gross company profits grew at 1.7% QoQ, below the 3% consensus and 2.8% prior.


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