Asian Open: Appetite for Risk Picks Up Ahead of NFP
Matt Simpson September 2, 2021 11:12 PM
Equities and bond yields were higher overnight thanks to strong jobless claims, whilst commodity FX led currencies higher during a mild risk-on session.
- Australia's ASX 200 futures are up 18 points (0.24%), the cash market is currently estimated to open at 7,503.70
- Japan's Nikkei 225 futures are up 170 points (0.6%), the cash market is currently estimated to open at 28,713.51
- Hong Kong's Hang Seng futures are down -111 points (-0.43%), the cash market is currently estimated to open at 25,979.43
UK and Europe:
- UK's FTSE 100 index rose 14.06 points (0.2%) to close at 7,163.90
- Europe's Euro STOXX 50 index rose 4.83 points (0.11%) to close at 4,232.10
- Germany's DAX index rose 16.3 points (0.1%) to close at 15,840.59
- France's CAC 40 index rose 4.39 points (0.07%) to close at 6,763.08
Thursday US Close:
- The Dow Jones Industrial rose 131.29 points (0.37%) to close at 35,443.82
- The S&P 500 index rose 12.86 points (0.29%) to close at 4,536.95
- The Nasdaq 100 index fell -7.317 points (-0.05%) to close at 15,604.25
Indices edge higher ahead of NFP:
Wall Street set marginal new highs ahead of NFP overnight after US jobless claims fell to a post-pandemic low. Higher oil prices helped energy stocks lead the S&P 500 higher with 7 of its 11 sectors posting gains. Top performers included Cabot Oil & Gain (COG) and Occidental Petroleum Corm (OXY), rising 6.7% and 5.9% respectively.
BHP Group (BHP) stumbled over 6% yesterday due to ex-dividend payments, weighing on the broader ASX 200 index which was down -0.58% by the close. However, it found support at the 50-day eMA and trend support (projected form the November low) so, unless we see a fresh catalyst today, it’s possible for a bounce from current levels.
ASX 200 Market Internals:
ASX 200: 7485.7 (-0.55%), 02 September 2021
- Financials (0.03%) was the strongest sector and Consumer Staples (-1.02%) was the weakest
- 6 out of the 11 sectors closed higher
- 8 out of the 11 sectors outperformed the index
- 94 (47.00%) stocks advanced, 99 (49.50%) stocks declined
- 69.5% of stocks closed above their 200-day average
- 64.5% of stocks closed above their 50-day average
- 61.5% of stocks closed above their 20-day average
- + 4.34% - Altium Ltd (ALU.AX)
- + 4.22% - Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals Ltd (CUV.AX)
- + 3.79% - Polynovo Ltd (PNV.AX)
- -6.86% - BHP Group Ltd (BHP.AX)
- -6.14% - United Malt Group Ltd (UMG.AX)
- -3.88% - Chalice Mining Ltd (CHN.AX)
Forex: AUD and NZD lead the pack
Commodity FX were the strongest majors overnight with NZD, AUD and CAD taking the top three spots.
NZD/JPY was the strongest pair during a risk-on session. GBP/JPY fell to a 3-month low and closed beneath trend support for a second session, in line with out bias. NZD/USD also hit our initial 0.7100 target and closed above this key level for the first time since June.
AUD/USD rose to a 1-month high and probed the 0.7400 handle as bears continued to short cover after Australia’s less-dire-than-expected GDP report for Q2.
The US dollar continued to slide with the dollar index (DXY) hitting a 1-month low and closing beneath 92.40. EUR/USD rose for a fifth consecutive day to hit a 1-month high and close in on the 1.19 handle. USD/CAD finally broke to a 2-week low with the help of higher energy prices.
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Oil prices looked past the rise of Delta cases globally and rallied over 1% after US rude inventories fell more than expected, to show rising demand. WTI printed a bullish engulfing candle at probed 70 resistance. Whilst it closed below this key level we now suspect the minor corrective low was seen at 67.12.
Gold prices continued to consolidate ahead of today’s Nonfarm payroll report. It has been confined to a choppy range of the past 5-session, although it has remained above the upper part of the 1800 – 1805 support zone, which includes the 200-day eMA and weekly pivot point.
A strong NFP print could boost the dollar and weigh on gold prices, so a clear break below 1800 removes it from the bullish watchlist. Yet, if NFP disappoints like ADP did, then gold could finally make a push for the 1834 highs.
Platinum fell to a 5-day low, further cementing our view that the market saw a corrective high just beneath 2500. Our bias remains bearish beneath this pivotal level.
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