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AUD/JPY impulsive downleg may have resumed

Short-term technical outlook on AUD/JPY



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Key Levels (1 to 3 days)

Intermediate resistance: 71.55

Pivot (key resistance): 72.00

Supports: 70.70 & 69.90/70

Next resistance: 72.90

Directional Bias (1 to 3 days)

Bearish bias below 72.00 key short-term pivotal resistance for the start of a potential downleg to retest 70.70 (03 Jan 2019 flash crash low area) before targeting 69.90/70 in the first step.

On the other hand, a clearance with an hourly close above 72.00 invalidates the bearish scenario for an extended corrective rebound towards the medium-term resistance at 72.90 (also the former ascending channel support from Sep 2017).

Key elements

  • Since 22 Jul 2019 high of 76.16, the AUD/JPY cross pair has been evolving within a descending channel. The recent bounce from 69.90 low printed on Mon, 26 Aug 2019(reinforced by “U.S/China trade deal optimism”) has stalled right below the descending channel resistance at 72.00.
  • The daily RSI oscillator has remained bearish below a corresponding resistance at the 42 level. In addition, the shorter-term 1-hour RSI has staged a bearish breakdown below its support. These observations suggest a revival of downside momentum.
  • The next significant near-term support rests at 69.70 which is defined by the lower boundary of a primary descending channel in place since 03 Dec 2018 high and a Fibonacci projection cluster

Charts are from eSignal


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