Canadian Jobs data solid: USD/CAD
Joe Perry April 9, 2021 3:00 PM
The BOC will take note of the strong employment print, as they are currently the frontrunner to taper monetary policy!
The Canadian Employment Change for March was +301,100 vs and expectation of +100,000 and +259,200 in February. The number was strong across the board, with the breakdown split between +175,000 fulltime jobs and +128,000 part time jobs. The level of employment is within 1.5% of February 2020 levels (pre-covid)! In addition, the Unemployment Rate fell from 8% to 7.5%, vs 8% expected. Canada has signaled they may be one of the first to begin tapering their stimulus program, and this number will make the BOC’s decision a little easier. However, Ontario just entered a lockdown and coronavirus cases are rising across the country. The BOC meets on April 21st. They may be more interested in April’s jobs data than March’s.
On a daily timeframe, the short-term move lower in USD/CAD on the data release (roughly 30 pips) hasn’t broken any significant levels. The pair has been in a descending wedge since the beginning of the pandemic on March 2020. The RSI became oversold and diverged with price throughout the first quarter of this year, however it has since bounced, and price remains in the wedge. The expectation from a descending wedge is that price will break to the upside. With the RSI back in neutral territory and USD/CAD mid-range with the wedge as it approaches the apex, we may have to wait for the BOC meeting to see a significant move. The top trendline of the wedge crosses at near 1.2675 and the bottom trendline crosses near the March 18th lows near 1.2400.
Source: Tradingview, FOREX.com
However, on a short-term 240-minute timeframe, the move lower in USD/CAD is threatening to break below the upward sloping trendline of a symmetrical triangle near 1.2540. If price breaks below, the next support is the April 5th lows near 1.2500, ahead of the previously mentioned long-term downward sloping trendline of the wedge on the daily near 1.2400. 1.2365 is the March 18th lows and final support before price can drop to 1.2060 (see daily). Initial resistance is at 1.2647, which is the March 30th highs. Above there is the short-term downward sloping trendline from the symmetrical triangle on the 240-minute timeframe near 1.2680, which confluences with the longer-term trendline from the descending wedge.
Source: Tradingview, FOREX.com
After an earlier delay, the BLS reported US PPI which was stronger than expected. However, the stronger Canadian employment change is outweighing the strong PPI data. Therefore, USD/CAD is offered. As the Fed has said they are not concerned about inflation, the US PPI shouldn’t matter much. However, the BOC will take note of the strong employment print, as they are currently the frontrunner to taper monetary policy!
Disclaimer: The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex and commodity futures, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to Forex.com or GAIN Capital refer to GAIN Capital Holdings Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.