Daily Forex Technical Strategy (Fri 06 Dec)
Kelvin Wong December 6, 2019 3:24 AM
EUR/USD – Potential push up to test major descending resistance
click to enlarge chart
- The pair has staged a break above the 1.1090 upper limit of the short-term neutrality range as per highlighted in our previous report (click here for a recap). Right now, it may continue the push up to test the next resistance 1.1160/1180 (18 Oct 2019 range top & the major descending resistance from 24 Sep 2018) with 1.1065 as the key short-term pivotal support.
- However, a break with an hourly close below 1.1065 sees a slide back towards the minor range support of 1.0990.
GBP/USD – Bullish breakout but risk of a minor pull-back imminent
click to enlarge charts
- The pair has staged a bullish breakout above the 1.2970 range resistance and rallied by 190 pips in the last 3 days. In the medium-term, the impulsive up move sequence of the uptrend phase from 03 Sep 2019 low of 1.1959 has resumed.
- In the shorter-term, the hourly RSI oscillator has traced out a bearish divergence signal at overbought region which indicates that the on-going rally has reached at “overstretched” state where it may stage a pull-back.
- Flip to a bullish bias in any pull-back with 1.2970 as the key short-term pivotal support for another potential upleg to target the next resistances at 1.3200/3240 and 1.3300 next. However, an hourly close below 1.2970 negates the bullish tone for a deeper pull-back towards the next support at 1.2970/2950.
USD/JPY – Gyrating at the Ascending Wedge support
click to enlarge chart
- The pair has whipsawed around the bearish “Ascending Wedge” support and conflicting U.S-China trade related news flow has made matter worse as we approach a “less liquid/thinly traded environment” towards the last 3 weeks of 2019.
- The conviction for a final push up towards the “Ascending Wedge” top/resistance at 110.00/15 as been reduced at this junction. Therefore, we prefer to turn neutral now between 109.00 and 108.30. Bears need to have an hourly close below 108.30 for a “clean break down” to target the next supports at 107.90 and 106.60 next.
- On the flipside, a clearance with an hourly close above 109.00 allows the short-term bulls to be in control for a push up towards 109.70 and 110.00/15 next.
AUD/USD – Sideways below major descending channel resistance for now
click to enlarge chart
- After the recent RBA monetary policy meeting on 03 Dec, the pair has been trapped within a minor “Symmetrical Triangle” range configuration below the 0.6845 major descending channel resistance from 03 Dec 2018 high.
- Prefer to turn neutral now between 0.6870 (also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent slide from 31 Oct high to 29 Nov 2019 low) and 0.6810. An hourly close below 0.6810 revives the short-term bearish tone for a slide to retest 0.6755 and even 0.6720 next.
- On the flipside, a clearance with a daily close above 0.6870 validates a major bullish breakout for an assault towards 0.6900/6930 in the first step.
Charts are from eSignal
Disclaimer: The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex and commodity futures, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to Forex.com or GAIN Capital refer to GAIN Capital Holdings Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.