Daily Forex Technical Strategy (Thurs 09 Jan)

USD remains above support against EUR, AUD & JPY while further potential downside intact for GBP/USD.

GBP/USD – Further potential downside intact

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  • The pair has continued to be capped below a minor descending trendline from the 13 Dec 2019 high of 1.3515 with a series of minor “lower highs” seen in the past 2 days (click here for a recap on our previous report).
  • Maintain bearish bias with an adjusted short-term pivotal resistance now at 1.3215 for a further potential push down to target the near-term supports of 1.3000 and 1.2920. However, an hourly close above 1.3215 negates the bearish scenario for a push up towards 1.3300. 

EUR/USD – Mix elements; watch 1.1180 resistance

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  • The pair has broken below the 1.1120 key short-term support which has invalidated the bullish scenario. Mix elements for now; prefer to turn neutral between 1.1180 and 1.1100 (the pull-back support of the former major descending resistance from 24 Sep 2018 high).
  • Only a clearance with an hourly close above 1.1180 revives the bullish tone for a push up to target the next resistances at 1.1240 and 1.1285 next (Fibonacci retracement/expansion cluster & swing high areas of 10/18 Jul 2019). On the flipside, a break below 1.1100 exposes the medium-term ascending trendline from 01 Oct 2019 low acting as a support at 1.1060/1040.

USD/JPY – Mix elements; watch 109.70 & 108.80

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  • The pair has squeezed up above the 108.80/95 key short-term resistance that has invalidated the bearish scenario as per highlighted by our previous report on the backdrop of a de-escalation of geopolitical risk in the Middle East.
  • Mix elements now; prefer to turn neutral between 109.70 (minor range top since Dec 2019) & 108.80. Only an hourly close below 108.80 reinstates the bearish tone for a slide back towards the next near-term support at 107.75/60. On the flipside, a clearance above 109.70 sees a further push up to target the 110.60 major pull-back resistance from 24 Jun 2016 low & the 21/22 May 2019 swing high).

AUD/USD – Mix elements; watch 0.6840 & 0.6930

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  • The pair has broken below the 0.6930 key short-term support that has invalidated the bullish scenario. Mix elements now; prefer to turn neutral between 0.6930 and 0.6840 (also the pull-back support of the former major descending channel resistance from 03 Dec 2018 high).
  • On a clearance with an hourly close above 0.6930 revives the bullish tone for push up to retest 0.7030 before targeting 0.7060/7080. On the flipside, a break below 0.6840 sees a further slide to probe the 0.6755 major support (the ascending trendline from 07 Aug 2019 low).

Charts are from eSignal

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