Daily Forex Technical Trend/Bias Key Levels (Tues 18 Jun)
Kelvin Wong June 18, 2019 5:08 AM
USD strength at risk of minor pull-back while further downside pressure remains for USD/JPY.
EUR/USD – Sideways, watch 1.1270 upper limit range
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- Tumbled down as expected on last Fri, 14 Jun and hit the downside target/support of 1.1215 as per highlighted in our previous report (click here for a recap). Right now, the price action has managed to find an interim support at 1.1215/1.1200 (the minor pull-back support from 01 May/the previous post FOMC, 06 Jun 2019 intraday spiked down & the 61.8% retracement of the recent push up from 30 May low to 07 Jun 2019 high).
- In addition, the hourly RSI oscillator has turned positive and still has room to manoeuvre to the upside before it reaches an extreme overbought level. Thus, prefer to turn neutral now between 1.1270 and 1.1200. An hourly close above 1.1270 sees a squeeze up to retest the 07/08 Jun 2019 minor top of 1.1350. On the flipside, a break with an hourly close above 1.1200 opens up scope for a further potential push down to target the medium-term range support of 1.1120.
GBP/USD – At risk of shaping minor corrective rebound above major support
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- Dropped lower as expected and hit the major support of 1.2545/2530 as per highlighted in our report. Based on Elliot Wave/fractal analysis, the pair is now showing risk of a minor corrective rebound within a medium-term down trend sequence in place since 13 Mar 2019 high of 1.3380.
- In addition, the hourly RSI oscillator has flashed a bullish divergence signal after it reached an extreme oversold level. Flip to a bullish bias above 1.2500 key short-term pivotal support for a minor corrective rebound to target the intermediate resistance zone of 1.2610/2650.
- On the other hand, a break with an hourly close below 1.2500 may see spike down to towards the next support at 1.2460/2440 (03 Jan 2019 swing low & Fibonacci expansion cluster).
USD/JPY – Drop in progress
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- Tested and staged a retreat from the 108.65 key pivotal resistance as expected. No change, maintain bearish bias for a slide to retest 107.80 and a break below it reinforces a further drop towards the next near-term support at 107.30/10 (Fibonacci expansion cluster).
- On the other hand, an hourly close above 108.65 invalidates the bearish scenario for a squeeze up to retest the next intermediate resistance at 109.25.
AUD/USD – At risk of shaping minor corrective rebound
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- Tumbled as expected and right now it is coming close to the downside target/support of 0.6860 as per highlighted in our previous report. It printed a current intraday low 0.6840 in today’s Asian session after the release of the RBA’s minutes of its recent monetary policy meeting that has indicated an increasing dovish tone among RBA officials.
- Short-term Elliot Wave/fractal analysis now indicates the risk of a minor rebound within a medium-term downtrend in place since 31 Jan 2019 high of 0.7295. In addition, the hourly Stochastic oscillator has flashed a bullish divergence signal at an extreme oversold level.
- Flip to a bullish bias with 0.6810 as the key short-term pivotal support for a potential push up to target the intermediate resistance zone at 0.6900/6934. On the other hand, a break with an hourly close below 0.6810 resumes the down move sequence to test the 03 Jan 2019 flash crash low of 0.6740 in the first step.
Charts are from eSignal
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