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Daily FX Technical Trend Bias/Key Levels (Tues 11 Jun)

EUR/USD – Further potential push up


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  • Broke above 1.1320 key short-term pivotal resistance and the descending resistance from 24 Sep 2018 high on last Fri, 07 Jun after the release of the dismal U.S. non-farm payroll jobs data for May which came in far below expectations (an increase of 75K versus 185K consensus).
  • Short-term momentum remains intact as indicated by the hourly RSI oscillator. Flip to a bullish bias with 1.1290 as the key short-term pivotal support (also the pull-back of the former descending resistance from 24 Sep 2018 & the lower boundary of a minor ascending channel from 30 May 2019) for a further potential corrective push up to retest last Fri, 07 Jun swing high area of 1.1350 before targeting the the key medium-term resistance at 1.1420/1450 (also the major descending trendline in place since 15 Feb 2018 & the 20 Mar 2019 swing high area).
  • However, a break with an hourly close below 1.1290 suggests a failure bullish breakout for a slide back towards the next near-term support at 1.1215 within a medium-term range configuration in place since 26 Apr 2019 low.

GBP/USD – Further potential push down below key resistance


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  • The 160 pips uptick since last Tues, 04 Jun triggered by a dovish speech from Fed Chair Powell and a dismal U.S. non-farm payrolls data for May had fizzled out below the 1.2785 key short-term pivotal resistance as per highlighted in our previous report. Maintain bearish bias below 1.2785 for a further potential drop towards 1.2605 before targeting the major support of 1.2545/30 (also the primary ascending range support in place since 07 Oct 2016 low).
  • However, an hourly close above 1.2890 invalidates the bearish scenario for an extension of the corrective rebound towards the 1.2890 key medium-term resistance (also the descending trendline from 13 Mar 2019).

USD/JPY – 108.65 remains the key resistance to watch


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  • The pair had shaped a drop of 70 pips to test the 107.80 swing low area printed on 04 Jun 2019 after the release of U.S. NFP on last Fri, 07 Jun before it rebounded back towards the 108.65 key short-term pivotal resistance as per highlighted in our previous report.
  •  Since its 04 Jun 2019 low, the pair has started to evolve within a minor “Expanding Wedge” range configuration with its upper boundary that coincides with the 108.65 key resistance. Maintain bearish bias below 108.65 key short-term pivotal resistance for a potential drop to retest 107.80 and a break below it reinforces a further slide towards the next near-term support at 107.30/10 (Fibonacci expansion cluster).
  • However, an hourly close above 108.65 invalidates the bearish scenario for a squeeze up to retest the next intermediate resistance at 109.25 (also the descending trendline resistance in place since 24 Apr 2019 high that has capped previous bounces).

AUD/USD – Bearish elements sighted below 0.7010/25 key resistance


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  • The pair has staged a retreat of 70 pips after a challenge on the 0.7010 key short-term pivotal resistance as per highlighted in our previous report. It has also ended yesterday, 10 Jun U.S. session with a daily “Bearish Engulfing” candlestick pattern.
  • Maintain bearish bias in any bounces below the 0.7010/7025 key short-term pivotal resistance for a further push down to retest 0.6935 and a break below it sees a further potential slide towards the 0.6860 range support.
  • However, an hourly close above 0.7025 negates the bearish tone for an extension of the corrective rebound towards the key medium-term resistance at 0.7065/85.

Charts are from eSignal


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