Daily Global Macro Technicals Trend Bias/Key Levels (Wed 24 Jan)
Kelvin Wong January 24, 2018 4:36 AM
FX – Mix bag with USD breaking below support against the EUR
- EUR/USD - An hourly close above the 1.2305 key short-term resistance in today (24 Jan) Asian session has invalidated the minor corrective decline scenario. The medium-term bullish impulsive upleg in place since 12 Dec 2017 low is now in an extension phase. Flip back to bullish bias in any dips above 1.2260 key short-term support (former minor descending trendline from 17 Jan 2018 high + minor ascending trendline from 18 Jan 2018 low) for a further potential push up towards the next near-term resistance zone of 1.2375/2390 (Fibonacci projection cluster + close to the upper boundary of a major ascending channel from 03 Jan 2017). On the hand, a break below 1.2260 should negate the bullish tone for another round of choppy slide to retest the 1.2215 minor range support from 22 Jan 2018 and even the recent swing low of 1.2165 printed on 18 Jan 2018.
- GBP/USD – Continued to inch higher towards the 1.4025/4130 upper neutrality range (upper boundary of the major ascending channel from 15 Jan 2017 low, 03 Apr 2016 swing low area + Fibonacci projection cluster). However, the 4 hour Stochastic oscillator has started to flash an impending bearish divergence signal after it hit an extreme overbought level which indicates the risk of a minor corrective pull-back to retrace the on-going up move since 11 Jan 2018 low. Mix elements, prefer to maintain neutrality stance between 1.4130 & 1.3930 (minor ascending trendline from 17 Jan 2018 low + former minor swing high area of 19 Jan 2018). Only a break below 1.3930 is likely to trigger a minor corrective decline towards the next near-term supports at 1.3820/1.3800 follow by 1.3745 (minor swing low area of 16 Jan 2018).
- AUD/USD – Still hovering below the 0.8040 key short-term resistance coupled with a daily bearish “Hanging Man” candlestick pattern seen after the close of yesterday, 23 Jan U.S. session. The risk of a minor corrective decline remains intact below the 0.8040 resistance for a potential push down towards the near-term supports of 0.7940 follow by 0.7900/7885 next (former medium-term swing high area of 13/19 Oct 2017 + medium-term ascending channel support from 08 Dec 2017 low + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the whole up move from 08 Dec 2017 low to yesterday high). However, a clearance above 0.8040 should put the bulls back in control for a further potential rally towards the next resistance at 0.8125 (medium-term swing highs at 10 May 2015 & 03 Sep 2017).
- NZD/USD - Right below the 0.7340/60 key short-term resistance with an impending bearish divergence signal seen in the 4 hour Stochastic oscillator after it hit an extreme overbought level. The risk of a minor corrective decline remains intact below the 0.7340/7360 resistance but it needs to break below 0.7310 downside trigger level (former minor swing high areas of 15/18/19 Jan 2018) to increase the odds of a setback towards the next near-term support of 0.7140 (swing low of 09 Jan 2018 + 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 08 Dec 2017 low to yesterday high). However, a clearance above 0.7360 should see the continuation of the extension up move to target the next resistance at 0.7435 (medium-term swing high of 20 Sep 2017).
- USD/JPY – Broke below the 110.20 key short-term support that invalidated the minor “Double Bottom” bullish chart configuration. Right now, it is testing the 110.00 psychological level which also confluences with the lower boundary of a medium-term descending channel from 06 Nov 2017 high & the 1.00 Fibonacci projection of the down move from 06 Nov 2017 high to 27 Nov 2017 low projected from 12 Dec 2017 high. Mix elements, prefer to turn neutral now between 110.00/109.90 & 111.45. However, a break below 109.90 is likely to trigger an extension of the decline towards the major support zone of 109.00/108.70 (the ascending trendline from Jun/Aug 2016 & Fibonacci cluster).
- US SP 500 – Rise in progress as expected and printed a new all-time high of 2842 in yesterday, 23 Jan U.S. session. Maintain bullish bias above a tightened key short-term support now at 2825 (close to yesterday’s minor swing low + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going up move from 17 Jan 2018 low) for a further potential push up to target the next near-term resistance at 2853 (1.618 Fibonacci projection from 17 Jan 2018 low) follow by 2860 (lower limit of the 2nd medium-term resistance-see latest weekly technical outlook). On the flipside, failure to hold above 2825 should negate the bullish tone for a deeper pull-back to test the next support at 2814/10 (former minor range top from 16 Jan/20 Jan 2018+ ascending channel support from 30 Dec 2017 low)
- Japan 225 – No change, maintain bullish bias above 23900/850 key short-term support for a further potential push up to test the near-term resistance of 24200 (Fibonacci projection cluster + exit potential of the recent triangle range bullish breakout) and above it sees a further rally towards 24400 (close to the upper boundary of the medium-term ascending channel from 06 Dec 2017 low). However, a reintegration back below 23850 should invalidate the bullish scenario for another round of choppy decline to retest the minor range support of 23650.
- Hong Kong 50 – Rise in progress as expected. No change, maintain bullish bias in any dips above 32350 key short-term support for a further potential push up towards 33330 (lower limit of medium-term resistance zone-see latest weekly technical outlook). However, failure to hold above 32350 should negate the bullish tone for a deeper pull-back towards the 32000/31850 support.
- Australia 200 – Broke above 6042 short-term upper neutrality range. Validate a potential push up now holding above the short-term support now at 6030 (former minor range top of 18/20 Jan 2018) towards 6109 the medium-term upper neutrality range (see latest weekly technical outlook). However, failure to hold above 6030 should negate the short-term bullish tone to see another slide to retest the 6000/5986 key medium-term support.
- Germany 30 – No change, maintain bullish bias in any dips above 13400 key short-term support (lower boundary of a minor ascending channel from 17 Jan 2018 low + close to 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going up move from 17 Jan 2018 low) for a further potential push up to target the next near-term resistance at 13670 (close to the upper boundary of the minor ascending channel from 17 Jan 2018 low + 3.618 Fibonacci projection from 17 Jan 2018 low). However, failure to hold above 13390 should negate the bullish tone for a deeper slide back to retest the 13340/300 support.
Commodities – Further potential upside in WTI
- Gold – Maintain neutrality stance between 1340 & 1320. A break below the 1320 is required to trigger a potential corrective slide to retest 1308/1305 support(minor swing low area of 09/10 Jan 2018). On the other hand, a clearance above 1340 should shift the focus back to the bulls for another round of potential up move to target 1357 (swing high of 08 Sep 2017) before the significant resistance of 1375/1378 (major upside trigger level for a potential multi-month up move).
- WTI Crude (Mar 2018) – Rise in progress as expected and hit the first resistance/target of 64.82. Maintain bullish above tightened key short-term support now at 64.00 (former minor swing high area of 23 Jan 2018 + minor ascending trendline from 23 Jan 2018 low) for a further potential push up towards the 65.20 significant medium-term resistance (former major swing lows area of Sep 2009/May 2010). On the other hand, failure to hold above 64.00 should negate the bullish tone for a slide back to retest the minor range support of 63.00/62.80 seen from 12 Jan to 19 Jan 2018.
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