Dollar selling eases but pressure remains
Fawad Razaqzada August 29, 2017 5:06 PM
The US dollar’s selling had paused ahead of Jackson Hole Symposium last week, but then it accelerated again. That was until earlier this morning as since then the dollar has made a small comeback against a number of her rivals due above all to profit-taking. The greenback fell sharply on Friday after Janet Yellen, the Federal Reserve Chairwoman, remained tight-lipped about the future path of US monetary policy. This triggered speculation that the Fed may delay raising rates again until next year. At the weekend, Hurricane Harvey wreaked havoc in Texas and is set to dump more heavy rain in the coming days. If the economic costs of the hurricane turns out to be significant then the Fed may have to be even more patient in normalising monetary policy. Also weighing on the dollar has been the sharp rise in risk aversion following North Korea’s launch of a missile over northern Japan overnight. Safe haven flows into the likes of Japanese yen, Swiss franc and gold have weighed heavily on the USD/JPY, USD/CHF and USD/GOLD pairs. The EUR/USD has meanwhile sharply extended its rally thanks to an improving Eurozone economy and the European Central Bank’s apparent contentment with the higher exchange rate.
The sharp rises in the yen and in particular the euro, have caused the Dollar Index to fall below the 91.90 key level, the low from last year. Going forward, if the DXY holds below this level then we may see further losses for the dollar, else a short-covering rally would not come as major surprise to me, as the dollar short has become a crowded trade. The dollar selling may pause ahead of the nonfarm payrolls report and this week’s other key US data releases. However the key support area for the DXY is below market around 89.60, which was formerly resistance prior to the breakout in late 2014. So, there is the possibility that the dollar may weaken further before potentially bouncing back. Regardless of the DXY’s next short-term move, any move back above the last resistance level at 94.10 would invalidate the bearish bias. Unless that happens, any short-term bounces should be treated with caution.
Source: TradingView and FOREX.com
Disclaimer: The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex and commodity futures, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to Forex.com or GAIN Capital refer to GAIN Capital Holdings Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.