EU Stocks Display Tentative Bullish Signs
Fawad Razaqzada October 10, 2018 11:51 AM
The bullish momentum from yesterday faded a little with European stock indices and US index futures both edging slightly lower at the time of writing, although the markets weren’t exactly selling-off. It looks like some investors might still be unnerved by the recent sell-off in government bonds, which have caused yields to rise across the board. But the rising yields are seen as being positive for banks and the likes of Barclays (+2.7%) and Deutsche Bank (+1.5%) were showing relative strength this morning. There are also a few other reasons to be cheerful. The recent weakness in the euro should be positive for European stocks, as it boosts overseas earnings and exports. What’s more, the negativity surrounding the Italian budget, which provides for a significantly higher deficit than had been expected, may be priced in by now. Indeed, the sell-off in Italy’s benchmark index, the FTSE MIB, has stalled for the time being. In addition, there was some good news out of Italy for a change: the latest industrial production data showed a 1.7% jump in output in August, according to Istat. This was the strongest showing since December 2017. Other Italian economic pointers of late haven’t been too bad, suggesting the political crises have not affected the economy outside of the financial markets yet.
Is DAX trying to bottom out?
Among the European indices, the German DAX index is looking rather interesting. After a sharp drop, the DAX managed to bounce back almost 200 points from its low of 11800 yesterday. Eventually, it ended the day around 15 points higher at 11977 after opening 11963. As a result, the index created a long-legged doji candle on the daily chart. Usually, after an extended drop, such technical patterns are found at the bottom of downtrends. That’s especially the case when there’s a false break below a prior low. In this case, the potential false break scenario being below the September low of 11865 – as the index refused to hold below this level yesterday.
So far in today’s session, however, there has been no follow-through on the upside. So, if the bearish trend continues and the index closes back below that 11865 level then this could pave the way for further losses to come with the next pool of liquidity below the March low at 11725 being an attractive target for bears.
Still, the technical signal from yesterday could be a positive sign for the major indices, so let’s see if the bulls will show up later on. Should the buyers show their presence again, then it is imperative that they not only push the index above the 12000 resistance level, but hold their ground there. IF they do that then it is possible we could see the index push higher in the days to come, with the gap fill at 12111 being the first bullish objective, followed by the next resistance at 12200.
But for the longer-term picture to turn bullish, we need the DAX to break through the downtrend and create a higher high above the most recent significant high at 12460. Until we see a clear sign that the downtrend is over, any rallies in the interim should be taken with a pinch of salt.
Source: eSignal and FOREX.com. Please note, this product is not available to US clients
Disclaimer: The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex and commodity futures, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to Forex.com or GAIN Capital refer to GAIN Capital Holdings Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.