EUR/JPY resumes slide as stocks fail to sustain post-midterms rally
Fawad Razaqzada November 9, 2018 5:10 PM
With US stocks struggling to hold onto their post-midterm elections gains, the risk-sensitive EUR/JPY currency pair has potentially resumed its long-term bearish trend after staging a counter-trend rally that lasted for several days until Wednesday.
With US stocks struggling to hold onto their post-midterm elections gains, the risk-sensitive EUR/JPY currency pair has potentially resumed its long-term bearish trend after staging a counter-trend rally that lasted for several days until Wednesday. The euro has also been struggling due to ongoing concerns over Brexit and Italy, and soft Eurozone data. If risk aversion were to rise further next week then this pair could potentially drop sharply, so it is definitely one to watch.
Technically, the EUR/JPY has turned lower from around a long-term pivotal level at 130.00. It has also found overhead resistance from its 50- and 200-day moving averages, which also converge in close proximity to this psychological hurdle. The slope of the 200-day SMA is negative, objectively suggesting that the long term trend is indeed bearish. Thus, for as long as rates remain below here, the path of least resistance would be to the downside. With the short-term support around 129.40 now broken, this level is the first key resistance to watch going forward.
There are no obvious short-term supports to watch on the daily time frame, but 128.50 looks like an interesting level as price had previously found support and resistance around here. If this level fails to hold up price then the liquidity below the October low at 126.60/5 could be the next big bearish target to watch.
The alternative scenario would be if rates now push above the 200-day MA and resistance in the 130.00 area. Specifically, any rise above the old high at 130.15 would be a bullish development in our view because if that were to happen then we will have a higher high in place.
Source: TradingView and FOREX.com
Disclaimer: The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex and commodity futures, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to Forex.com or GAIN Capital refer to GAIN Capital Holdings Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.