European Market Open: UK hopes to start unwinding lockdown in March
Joshua Warner January 18, 2021 7:15 AM
European markets are set to open slightly higher today, with the FTSE 100 rising on hopes that the UK can ease lockdown restrictions in the coming months as its vaccination programme accelerates.
- The UK has expanded its vaccination programme today, as ministers hope to start unwinding national lockdown rules in the spring.
- Over the Channel, Germany’s CDU party picks their replacement for Merkel, while France calls for a moratorium on the trade spat between the EU and the US.
- China’s economy grew at a faster pace in the fourth quarter of 2020 than expected.
- US markets are shut today for Martin Luther King’s birthday
FTSE 100 to open higher
The FTSE 100 is set to open 0.3% higher this morning at 6723.3 from 6705.0 at the end of play on Friday.
Analyst Fiona Cincotta looks at the technical picture surrounding the FTSE here
European markets holding steady
France’s CAC 40 is called to open broadly flat at 5594.9 from 5596.8 at the close on Friday.
Germany’s DAX is set to open a smidgen higher at 13747.0 from 13736.8 at the last close.
UK hopes to start unwinding national lockdown by March
Foreign secretary Dominic Raab said the country would be able to gradually start relaxing lockdown restrictions ‘by early spring, hopefully by March’ but warned they would not be removed ‘all in one big bang’. The UK intends to move out of the national lockdown and back into the tiered system that tries to contain outbreaks at a local level.
That comes as the UK starts to offer vaccines to people over the age of 70 and those classified as clinically extremely vulnerable as of Monday. That will see over five million people from priority groups three and four invited to get a jab. It occurs at the same time as 10 new vaccination hubs open across the country.
Over 3.8 million people have now received their first jab and prime minister Boris Johnson said the programme was now running ‘at a rate of 140 jabs a minute’. The country is trying to vaccinate the most vulnerable 15 million people by the middle of February.
The UK has also closed all its travel corridors today, meaning all travellers coming into the country will have to show they have had a negative test within 72-hours of travelling and quarantine for up to 10 days.
Global airline industry needs another $80 billion to survive
The global airline industry needs another $70 billion to $80 billion of government support to survive the ongoing crisis being caused by the coronavirus pandemic, according to the industry trade body.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) said that would help bridge the gap until June, when it is hoping a proper recovery can begin as more people are vaccinated. However, the staggering sums would be on top of the already eye-watering $170 billion of support the industry has already received during the pandemic.
Travel has been one of the worst-hit industries over the past year. Just 1.8 billion passengers flew in 2020 compared to 4.5 billion in 2019, plunging airlines into the red and causing some to go bankrupt.
Germany’s CDU votes for Laschet to lead party
Germany’s Christian Democrats have voted for Armin Laschet to takeover as leader of the party over the weekend. It puts him in pole position to replace chancellor Angela Merkel in the Bundestag elections this September.
Laschet is the premier of North Rhine-Westphalia, the most populous state in the country, and regarded as the continuity candidate that is set to continue with Merkel’s style of politics.
Still, the close vote – at 521 votes to 466 in his runoff race with conservative candidate Friedrich Merz – shows the party is not united on the appointment of Laschet.
France wants moratorium on EU-US trade dispute
France’s foreign minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said the trade dispute between the European Union and the US should be put on hold until a solution can be found with incoming US president Joe Biden.
A long-running dispute between the US and the EU has escalated in recent months. Having originally started out as a disagreement over how airplane makers Airbus and Boeing are subsidised, the spat has now seen new tariffs be imposed on other products like steel and wine and engulfed a separate argument over European countries targeting Big Tech in the US with a digital services tax.
He said it could ‘take time’ to resolve, but said ‘we can always order a moratorium’ in the meantime.
China’s economy expands faster than expected
China’s GDP grew by 6.5% in the fourth quarter of 2020, beating market expectations. That was up from 6% the year before and means the Chinese economy grew 2.3% over 2020 as a whole.
Like virtually every other country, China’s economy took a battering in the first half of 2020 as the pandemic took hold, but it has managed to quickly recover in the latter half of the year unlike most other major economies.
Industrial production has been the main driver, up 7.1% in the final three months of the year, but retail sales also grew by 4.6%.
Forex: Narrow movements
GBP/USD traded at 1.35677 in early trade, up 0.2% from 1.35900 at the end of play on Friday.
Meanwhile, EUR/GBP traded 0.2% higher at 0.89043 compared to 0.88877 as last week came to a close.
Commodities: Gold prices rise
Brent traded at $54.89 this morning, flat from $54.87 a barrel at the close on Friday, while WTI sat at $52.27 compared to $52.18.
Gold traded at $1838 in early trade, up 0.7% from $1825 at the end of last week.
Market-moving events in the economic calendar
It is a light start for the economic calendar this week with US markets shut for Martin Luther King’s birthday. Italy will release CPI numbers at 0900 GMT and the latest Eurogroup meeting will be held today. Later, there is New Zealand’s NZIER business confidence survey at 2100 GMT.
Forex.com analyst Joe Perry has a look at the Week Ahead, which will see Joe Biden inaugurated as president and the BoC, BoJ and ECB all meet.
Disclaimer: The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex and commodity futures, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to Forex.com or GAIN Capital refer to GAIN Capital Holdings Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.