FX Brief: EUR Lower as Investor Pessimism Grows

A summary of news and snapshot of moves ahead of the US session.

  • FX volumes have remained lower than usual with no major US data scheduled for release in the afternoon. FWIW, the AUD was the strongest and EUR the weakest at the time of writing, with the latter hurt by growing investor pessimism. Equities were mostly lower as Friday’s strong NFP reduced expectations of the Fed cutting by 50bpslater this month.
  • In EM FX news, (1) Trump again claimed China is devaluing its currency whilst speaking with reporters and (2) the Turkish lira has dropped amid renewed concerns that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is ruining the nation’s economy, just as inflation was starting to ease back, with his decision to replace the Turkish Central Bank’s Governor over the weekend.
  • Sentix Investor Confidence deteriorated to -5.8 from -3.3 last month, disappointing forecasts of an improvement to +0.3. A reading below zero points to pessimism while above means optimism. Investors have therefore grown increasingly pessimistic about the relative 6-month economic outlook for the Eurozone. However, there was some good news from Germany, for a change. German exports were up 1.1% in May after dropping 3.4% in April, while industrial production rose 0.3% after a 2% fall in April. Both figures were roughly in line with economists' forecasts. This follows data on Friday showing factory orders in Europe's biggest economy dropped 2.2% in May.

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