GBPUSD to target $1.24 post NFP?
Fiona Cincotta September 6, 2019 10:37 AM
Brexit bill, election & NFP - there is plenty for cable traders to be watching on Friday
With the House of Lords expected to approve the anti-hard Brexit bill today, rumours of a late October election swirling and NFP report pending cable traders have plenty to be watching on Friday.
Today at 13:30 BST the US non-farm payroll figures will be released. Expectations are for 160,000 jobs to have been created in August. Given the rebound in the dollar in the previous session investors could be hoping for a slightly stronger figure today.
And they could be right. There are several data points which indicate that the number of jobs created in August will surprise to the upside.
1) ADP private payrolls surprised to the upside with the largest increase in private sector jobs in 4 months
2) Jobless claims remained low with no signs of rising layoffs
However, there has also been a slew of data which indicates that the NFP could actually disappoint.
1) Whilst US non-manufacturing print impressed, the employment component of the report was a cause for concern, dropping to the lowest level in 2 years. Given the dominance of the service sector in the US economy, there is a strong correlation between the ISM non-manufacturing employment component and the NFP. This is arguably a stronger lead indicator than the ADP private payrolls print.
2) The manufacturing sector is experiencing a slump. This is being reflected in employment numbers for the sector which have fallen to a three-year low. Whilst this sector accounts for a much smaller area off the economy than services, it adds to the weaker jobs picture.
3) Finally, the University of Michigan confidence indicator experienced the biggest 1 month drop since 2012. Erosion of consumer confidence due to the ongoing US – Sino trade dispute is now well underway, which, whilst there is no trade war solution in sight, doesn’t bode well for the US economy or the labour market.
A print below 150k could well be in the pipeline and will disappoint. A weak figure could stoke slowdown and recession fears in the US economy, boosting expectations of further intervention from the Fed. Under this scenario we expect the dollar to fall.
GBPUSD levels to watch:
After three days of Brexit inspired gains GBPUSD has been moving lower in early trade on Friday. A weak US NFP report could see the pair push through resistance at $1.2355 and target $1.24. A stronger than forecast NFP could send GBP/USD lower, testing resistance at $1.2245 prior to $1.2210.
Disclaimer: The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex and commodity futures, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to Forex.com or GAIN Capital refer to GAIN Capital Holdings Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.