OPEC's decision will likely boost oil prices further in short term

The OPEC surprised the market yesterday and actually managed to agree on a production cut, with details to follow in their November meeting. Up to 800,000 barrels of oil per day will potentially be removed from the oversupplied market which would lower the production target for the cartel to a range between 32.5 and 33.0 mb/d. Oil prices surged some 6% in the immediate aftermath of the news, though they have since eased off a tad as traders make a more sober assessment of the whole situation.

I think it is definitely a bullish move for oil prices in the short term outlook as above all it shows unity among oil producing nations once again, especially if non-OPEC producers such as Russia were to also join them in cutting their crude output. However, it is important to note that the OPEC output will still remain near record high levels and there is scope for some members to ignore the production cap. For oil prices to rise more meaningfully, US crude supplies will need to decline further and/or the outlook for global demand growth needs to improve more robustly. In the US, crude stockpiles have fallen relatively sharply over the past four weeks, which is good news. However, the number of rig counts have generally risen over the past few months, suggesting that the decline in oil production could come to a halt soon. And if the OPEC’s decision to limit oil output helps to raise prices significantly then that should in turn lead to higher non-OPEC production, mainly from the US.

So what does that mean for oil prices? I think in the short-term, prices will most likely head further higher but then start to fall back as US oil supply probably rises again, say when prices are some distance north of $50 a barrel. As before I expect oil prices to remain in the range between $45 and $65 a barrel in the fourth quarter. Both oil contracts appear poised to move outside their converging trend lines to the upside. If successful, this should trigger fresh momentum buying interest and potentially lift Brent and/or WTI to their respective key $50.00-$51.00 resistance zones once again. The key short-term support levels to watch are at $48.20 and $47.25 for Brent and $46.45/55 and $45.75 for WTI, levels that were previously resistance. 

Source: eSignal and FOREX.com.

Source: eSignal and FOREX.com.

Disclaimer: The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex and commodity futures, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to Forex.com or GAIN Capital refer to GAIN Capital Holdings Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

The markets are moving. Stop missing out.