USD/CHF about to rip?
Fawad Razaqzada October 17, 2017 4:19 PM
The USD/CHF remains fundamentally supported with the US Federal Reserve being the most hawkish central bank out there, while the Swiss National Bank being among the most dovish.
The USD/CHF remains fundamentally supported with the US Federal Reserve being the most hawkish central bank out there, while the Swiss National Bank being among the most dovish. The perceived safe haven Swiss franc is currently also undermined by rising equity prices around the globe, which is also undermining gold prices. And with the Dollar Index potentially on the verge of a comeback after its decline since the turn of the year, we are now expecting to see the USD/CHF push higher.
The key risk to this forecast is if we see a sudden rise in risk aversion, or if some significantly weak US macro data causes the Fed to postpone its plans of reducing its balance sheet. The latter seems unlikely. One thing that could underpin safe haven assets across the board would be a stock market correction, which many believe is now long overdue. However, so far there are no signs that the stock markets are about to top out. So, all else being equal, the USD/CHF “should” push higher from here.
Indeed, the technical outlook is also improving for the Swissy. The recent break above the 0.9770 resistance more or less confirmed the reversal we saw around the 2016 low of 0.9445 area earlier last month. Now that the USD/CHF is above this level again, it may begin to climb towards its next reference points, starting at 0.9850, followed by 1.0050 next.
Meanwhile the bears would like to see a clean break below 0.9670, which was the low prior to the latest rally. If this level breaks then another attempt to take out the 2016 low could be on the cards next.
Source: eSignal and FOREX.com
Disclaimer: The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex and commodity futures, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to Forex.com or GAIN Capital refer to GAIN Capital Holdings Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.