Technical view: Gold is glittering again! Can it break 4-month highs near $1875?
Matt Weller, CFA, CMT May 18, 2021 5:23 PM
The yellow metal has quietly formed a bullish channel over the last six weeks - where will it go next?
There’s no beating around the bush: Gold’s performance through Q4 of last year and Q1 of this year was immensely disappointing for precious metal bulls. Despite political uncertainty, rising bond yields, a falling US dollar, and hints of inflation amidst unprecedented economic stimulus across the globe, gold steadily fell until eventually forming a double bottom beneath $1700 in March.
If you're interested in investing in physical gold or silver, check out our partner CoinInvest!
Just when even the most hardcore of gold bugs was losing faith, the yellow metal has quietly formed a bullish channel over the last six weeks. Over that same period, the 14-day RSI indicator has formed a bullish channel of its own, signaling growing buying pressure behind the move and the potential for it to extend further in the weeks to come:
Source: StoneX, TradingView
Looking at the key levels to watch, gold is testing the $1875 area, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the pullback from last year’s record highs; this area also marks the minor highs from late January, providing a confluence of resistance levels and increasing the odds of a potential pullback in the latter half of this week.
That said, the medium-term momentum has clearly shifted back in favor of the bulls, with the 20-day EMA providing support and the 200-day EMA turning higher for the first time in months. A confirmed break of $1875, if seen, could open the door for a continuation toward the next level of previous resistance at $1960 or key psychological resistance at $2000. Only a break below the bottom of the bullish channel and the 200-day EMA in the $1800 area would erase the near-term bullish bias.
How to trade with FOREX.com
Follow these easy steps to start trading with FOREX.com today:
- Open a Forex.com account, or log-in if you’re already a customer.
- Search for the pair you want to trade in our award-winning platform.
- Choose your position and size, and your stop and limit levels.
- Place the trade.
Disclaimer: The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex and commodity futures, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to Forex.com or GAIN Capital refer to GAIN Capital Holdings Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.