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EUR/USD rises on ECB day. Will Lagarde & Co disappoint?


EURUSD is extending yesterday’s rebound ahead of the ECB meeting today.

The ECB is not expected to change policy; however, with inflation at a record high and growth set to slow amid the fallout from the Ukraine crisis, the ECB could tweak its statement slightly for a more hawkish edge.

The ECB is expected to end its asset purchase programme (APP) before hiking rates in Q3. Any hawkish commentary from ECB governor Lagarde could lift the EUR further. However, given the increasingly hawkish expectations, any disappointment could

Despite PPI inflation hitting a record high, the USD fell yesterday, which suggests higher consumer prices to come.

Today, USD is falling lower ahead of US retail sales, jobless claims, and US consumer sentiment.

Where next for EUR/USD?


After facing rejection at the 50 SMA, EUR/USD fell lower before rebounding off support at 1.08 yesterday. The rise above 1.09, combined with the bullish crossover on the MACD, keeps buyers optimistic about the further upside.

A move over 1.0950 could see buyers gain traction towards 1.10 the psychological level, bringing 1.11 the 50 sma into play.

On the flip side, any weakness in the pair could see EUR/USD test 1.08, 2022 low, ahead of 1.0730, the April 2020 low.

EUR/USD chart Source: TradingView, StoneX  
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