USD/CAD in focus ahead of Bank of Canada decision
James Chen, CMT January 16, 2018 5:32 PM
The recent pronounced weakness for the US dollar has helped lead to a resumed fall for USD/CAD down to a key support area around 1.2400.
The US dollar attempted to rebound on Tuesday, but bearish sentiment and heavy pressure on the greenback have remained after the sharp plunge that occurred late last week and into the beginning of this week. US dollar weakness was a key theme throughout much of last year, and has continued to prevail into January, pushing the US dollar index to a new 3-year low as of Friday, and the EUR/USD to a new 3-year high. This recent pronounced weakness for the US dollar has also helped lead to a resumed fall for USD/CAD down to a key support area around 1.2400.
Looking ahead to Wednesday, the Canadian dollar will likely take center stage once again as the Bank of Canada issues its latest interest rate decision, monetary policy report, and press conference. Current consensus expectations point to another potential interest rate hike by the BoC – to 1.25% – after the central bank last raised rates back-to-back in July and September of last year. If the BoC indeed raises rates as expected, the Canadian dollar could receive another boost against the beleaguered US dollar, potentially pressuring USD/CAD even more.
Earlier, in the first week of the new year, key employment reports from the US and Canada showed a stark contrast that weighed further on USD/CAD. US headline employment for December fell significantly short of expectations while Canada’s job creation far exceeded forecasts.
As noted, USD/CAD currently sits just above key support around the 1.2400 level, and continues to trade within a bearish trend on both longer-term and shorter-term time frames. Any sharp and sustained breakdown below 1.2400 amid further US dollar weakness or a hawkish decision from the Bank of Canada on Wednesday could prompt a resumption of the bearish trend and continued slide for USD/CAD down towards the next key support target around the 1.2200 level.
Disclaimer: The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex and commodity futures, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to Forex.com or GAIN Capital refer to GAIN Capital Holdings Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.